"Brasil robusto" pode ser punido por falta de ação, diz jornal britânico

BBC Brasil
29/08/2008
Uma reportagem da edição desta sexta-feira do jornal britânico "Financial Times" afirma que chegou a hora de os países emergentes "pagarem a conta" depois de cinco anos de forte crescimento econômico.
Segundo a reportagem, o Brasil não vem sofrendo com o desaquecimento econômico dos países ricos, mas isso deve mudar, em parte por falta de investimento brasileiro em infra-estrutura, educação, saúde e combate ao crime.
"Um Brasil mais robusto pode sofrer uma penalidade por falta de ação", é o título de uma seção da reportagem que analisa o caso específico do Brasil.
"A idéia de que o Brasil --que era tão vulnerável a mudanças nos mercados globais-- finalmente consegue ficar de pé ou cair devido aos seus próprios méritos é (uma visão) popular no governo e é amparada por muitas evidências", diz o artigo.
"No entanto, para muitos analistas, isto não passa de otimismo; a única dúvida deles agora é se o Brasil enfrentará uma forte e feia correção ou se conseguirá preparar uma aterrissagem suave."

Capacidade de produzir etanol subirá 80% em seis anos, diz governo

Reunião ampliada do CDES tem como foco os investimentos na economia. Governo argumenta que o ciclo de investimentos é 'amplo e robusto'.
G1 / Alexandro Martello
29/08/2008
A capacidade de produção de etanol subirá 80% nos próximos seis anos, segundo documento divulgado pelo Palácio do Planalto nesta quinta-feira (28) antes da reunião ampliada do Conselho de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (CDES).
Em 2008/2009, a produção, ainda segundo o governo, atingirá a marca de 26,5 bilhões de litros, volume que saltará para 30,7 bilhões em 2009/10, para 35 bilhões de litros em 2010/11, para 38,5 bilhões em 2011/12, para 42 bilhões de litros em 2012/13, para 46 bilhões de litros em 2013/14 e, finalmente, para 49 bilhões em 2014/15.
Na reunião do CDES desta quinta-feira, o foco será os investimentos previstos pelos setores público e privado para os próximos anos. Na apresentação, o governo argumenta que virá, pela frente, um ciclo de investimentos "amplo e robusto", com base no Programa de Aceleração do Crescimento (PAC) e na política industrial.
O governo avalia ainda que o padrão de crescimento da economia brasileira será virtuoso, visto que o emprego e os salários crescem com um "aumento firme" de produtividade, ao mesmo tempo em que o setor produtivo estaria disposto a investir. O sistema de crédito, diz o governo, está saudável e "apto à expansão".

Empresas "congelam" os investimentos em pesquisa

Folha de S.Paulo / Julio Wiziack
29/08/2008
Um levantamento da consultoria Prospectiva revela que o registro de patentes no Brasil caiu 55% em três anos. O total de depósitos era de 207 em 2004 e baixou para 92 em 2007.
As patentes são o principal indicador para avaliar o papel das inovações tecnológicas no desenvolvimento da indústria nacional. Desde 2004, o governo federal mantém um programa de incentivos fiscais às empresas que investem em centros de pesquisas universitários ou privados.
Com a aprovação da Lei do Bem, em 2005, que regulamentou a política de descontos tributários para as companhias que gastassem com ciência e tecnologia, esperava-se que a parceria entre universidades e grupos empresariais fosse decolar.
Para dar mais estímulo, a legislação ampliou os descontos em 2007. Hoje, eles variam de acordo com os investimentos em pesquisa, que sofrem acréscimos de 60% a 250% antes de serem declarados à Receita Federal.
Essa artimanha contábil autorizada pelo governo torna maiores as despesas das empresas, reduzindo artificialmente seus lucros. Como o imposto incide sobre o lucro, elas acabam pagando, em média, 40% menos. A legislação só beneficia quem opera no regime contábil de lucro real.
Mesmo assim, as parcerias não estão emplacando. Advogados e representantes de classe discutiram o assunto durante o Seminário Nacional de Propriedade Intelectual promovido pela ABPI (Associação Brasileira de Propriedade Intelectual) em São Paulo. Segundo eles, as empresas estão temerosas em usufruir dos incentivos.
Segundo Juliana Viegas, presidente da ABPI, muitos fiscais não estão concedendo os descontos. "Pela lei, o benefício deveria ser automático", diz Viegas. Apesar disso, ela diz que as dificuldades são passageiras. "A lei ainda é uma novidade. As empresas e o governo estão aprendendo a lidar com ela."
Para Gabriel Tannus, presidente da Interfarma (associação que reúne alguns dos laboratórios que mais investem em pesquisa), essas barreiras estão espantando as empresas que poderiam apostar nas universidades para aprimorar seus produtos e serviços. "Isso traz mais dividendos. Todo mundo sairia ganhando. Mas agora as empresas estão inseguras. Nenhuma quer investir e perder dinheiro. Precisamos de um marco regulatório mais firme."
A Folha consultou grandes corporações, a maioria multinacionais. Em alguns casos, seus investimentos mundiais em pesquisa e em desenvolvimento chegam a ser dez vezes maiores que o realizado pelo Brasil.
Algumas confirmaram que os fiscais contestaram os investimentos realizados, alegando não se tratar de recursos destinados à pesquisa.
A Receita Federal, por meio de sua assessoria de imprensa, negou-se a comentar o assunto genericamente e pediu os nomes das empresas. Consultadas, elas não autorizaram a divulgação de seus nomes.

Governo quer estimular exportações com menos impostos

Agência Brasil
29/08/2008
O governo deve anunciar nos próximos dias a regulamentação do Drawback Verde e Amarelo para estimular as exportações. Segundo Lytha Spíndola, secretária executiva da Câmara de Comércio Exterior (Camex), a finalidade da medida é equiparar o tratamento do insumo nacional com aquele dado à matéria-prima exportada, suspendendo, isentando ou restituindo impostos.
"Talvez seja a maior reivindicação do setor exportador brasileiro", disse. "Muitas vezes a empresa, que vai produzir para vender para o mercado, prefere importar partes, peças, componentes, produtos intermediários, matérias-primas e material de embalagem, ao invés de comprar no mercado interno", completou.
Com o drawback, de acordo com a secretária executiva da Camex, isso vai mudar, porque vai haver uma equiparação do tratamento tributário, favorecendo a compra do mercado interno, o que aumentará a produção e geração de emprego.
O sistema de drawback beneficia contribuintes nas operações de comércio exterior com a suspensão, isenção ou restituição de imposto que incidem nas exportações, especificamente o Imposto de Importação, o Imposto sobre Produtos Industrializados (IPI) e o Imposto sobre Circulação de Mercadorias e Serviços (ICMS).

Mudanças na lei para explorar pré-sal podem ser arriscadas, diz "Economist"

Folha Online
29/08/2008
Realizar mudanças no marco regulatório do petróleo após as descobertas na camada pré-sal pode ser arriscado. A avaliação consta de reportagem da edição eletrônica da revista britânica "The Economist", publicada nesta quinta-feira.
A revista avalia também que uma nova estatal para cuidar das reservas descobertas pode se tornar "inchada" com indicados políticos, além de criar a tentação de rever os contratos já existentes no setor petrolífero no Brasil, o que seria "desastroso" para a Petrobras.
"Embora a Petrobras, que é sujeita às regras do mercado, seja relativamente enxuta, uma nova estatal pode rapidamente se tornar inchada com indicados políticos. Em segundo lugar, o governo pode se sentir tentado a revisar contratos existentes, o que seria ruim para a confiança e desastroso para a Petrobras e suas parceiras (a britânica BG Group tem uma participação de 25% no campo de tupi e a portuguesa Galp Energia, 10%)", diz a reportagem.
"Além disso, deixar de fora os acionistas estrangeiros da Petrobras pode assustar os investidores estrangeiros em geral", acrescenta o texto.
No mês passado, o ministro Edison Lobão (Minas e Energia) disse que não serão ofertadas áreas da camada pré-sal até que o novo marco regulatório para o setor esteja definido. "Haverá leilão neste ano, mas não para o pré-sal. Poderemos abrir o leilão da 8ª Rodada [que foi interrompido] e até mesmo fechá-lo em seguida, e vamos fazer outros leilões. Um ou mais leilões além da oitava, fora do pré-sal. Dá tempo", afirmou na ocasião.
Hoje, em reunião do CDES (Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social) sobre investimentos no país, Lobão disse que pedirá ampliação do prazo dado à comissão interministerial que analisa o novo marco regulatório para exploração da camada pré-sal. O relatório seria entregue dia 19 de setembro.
A reportagem diz ainda que os recursos obtidos com a exploração da camada pré-sal poderiam ser desperdiçados se utilizados para a educação, antes de uma reforma nesse setor --o investimento tem sido defendido com veemência pelo presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
"[Lula] quer que boa parte do dinheiro do petróleo seja reservada para a educação, que é uma área que seus auxiliares reconhecem que não teve atenção suficiente. Isso tem seus riscos: a educação pública no Brasil é mal gerida e precisa de reformas antes de ser irrigada com dinheiro, ou muito será desperdiçado", afirma a "Economist".
A camada pré-sal se estende por cerca de 800 quilômetros, entre os Estados do Espírito Santo e Santa Catarina, e engloba três bacias sedimentares (Espírito Santo, Campos e Santos). O petróleo encontrado está a profundidades superiores a 5 mil metros, abaixo de uma extensa camada de sal, que segundo geólogos, conservam a qualidade do petróleo.
Estimativas apontam que a camada pode abrigar algo próximo de 100 bilhões de barris de óleo equivalente em reservas. Pelo preço atual da commodity, as reservas podem significar algo em torno de US$ 5 trilhões a US$ 9 trilhões.

U.S. Ethanol Isn't Up to Brazilian Smackdown: Alexandre Marinis

Commentary by Alexandre Marinis
May 27 (Bloomberg) -- Sometimes two things look pretty much the same, like a Cartier diamond and a Home Shopping Network cubic zirconia.
There's a world of difference between the two.
The same is true of ethanol made in the U.S., mainly from corn, and ethanol from Brazil derived from sugar cane. They look the same, though that's where the similarities end between what I like to call ethacorn and ethacane.
Although ethacane doesn't produce a fraction of the negative economic, environmental and social problems that ethacorn does, as international food prices soar and environmental concerns mount, both are being thrown into the same pinata to get hammered. Ethacorn deserves the beating, not ethacane.
It's hard to know whether those wielding the sticks are just temporarily blindfolded or whether they have an interest in defending the fossil-fuel industry or the agricultural subsidies of rich nations.
There are four main arguments against the wide use of Brazilian ethacane:
-- Food prices are being driven out of sight as farmers grow more-profitable sugar cane instead of other crops.
-- Amazon rainforest is being destroyed to make way for cropland.
-- Ethacane pollutes as much or more than oil-based fuel.
-- Cane production uses the equivalent of slave labor and is morally unjust since it takes food from the mouths of the poor to put in the gas tanks of the rich.
Myth Busting
Each of these points is a myth.
To start with, let's make a broad point. ``Brazil has the oldest, most advanced and efficient ethanol programs in the world,'' according to the report of an international conference on biofuels in February 2007 at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington.
That brings up the first question: If ethacane were responsible for higher food prices, wouldn't food cost more in Brazil than elsewhere? It doesn't.
According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, or FAO, Brazil is one of the world's cheapest producers of corn, soybeans, beef, chicken, pork, milk and rice. In a clear sign of agricultural competitiveness, Brazil is also a leading exporter of food.
``When we talk about the influence of biofuels on the economy of grains, we are talking about the corn from the U.S., not the sugar cane from Brazil,'' said Abdolreza Abbassian, secretary of the Intergovernmental Group on Grains within FAO. A recent study by the International Monetary Fund shows that Brazil's ethacane hasn't been responsible for higher international food prices.
Room to Spare
Brazil also has all the room needed to grow sugar cane and increase agricultural productivity without tearing down a single tree in the Amazon. Five hundred years ago, the Portuguese learned that the Amazon isn't the best region to grow sugar cane, which requires a long dry season.
Out of 320 million hectares of arable land in Brazil, only 3.2 million hectares, or 1 percent, are used to grow sugar cane for ethanol. Moreover, Brazil has 100 million hectares of underutilized pastures suitable for agriculture. That's more land than France and Germany combined.
While every hectare, equal to about 2.5 acres, of Brazilian pasture feeds one cow, in many countries there are as many as six cows per hectare. If Brazilian ranching becomes slightly more intensive, the country could easily boost production of food and biofuels without destroying the forest.
Reverse Malthus
Proving economist Thomas Malthus wrong, in the past 15 years, Brazil increased the amount of land used to grow grains by 21 percent, while production soared 119 percent.
Arguing that ethacane pollutes more than fossil fuels is ludicrous. While oil already costs $130 a barrel and will eventually run out, ethacane is renewable, cleaner and more efficient.
In comparison with gasoline, ethacane reduces the emission of greenhouse gases by more than 80 percent, according to the U.S. Energy Department.
As for efficiency, ethacane produces 8.2 joules of energy per unit of fossil-fuel input, compared with 1.5 joules for ethacorn and less than 1 joule for diesel and gasoline.
Ethacane is twice as productive as ethacorn -- 6,800 liters per hectare for the former and 3,100 liters per hectare for the latter. It also produces 24 percent more fuel per hectare than the beet- or wheat-based ethanol common in Europe.
Manual Labor
The argument that ethacane pollutes the environment because the cane must be burned before being manually harvested is a nonstarter. In the state of Sao Paulo, which produces 62 percent of Brazil's ethanol, more than half of the cane is already harvested mechanically and manual cane-cutting will be abolished by 2014. That should also put an end to the argument that cane harvesting relies on the equivalent of slave labor.
Nor does ethacane take from the poor and give to the rich. Agricultural subsidies in wealthy nations do that.
Far more problematic than any of these issues is the U.S. Congress's refusal to eliminate a 54-cent tariff on each gallon of imported ethanol. This levy was introduced in 1980 to protect U.S. makers of corn-based ethanol from competitors such as Brazil, which can produce ethacane for 22 cents per liter, while U.S. ethacorn costs 35 cents per liter. Lifting this tariff would ease the demand for corn and take a step toward easing pressure on food prices.
Brazil is threatening to challenge the U.S. tariff at the World Trade Organization. Pascal Lamy, the director-general of the WTO, has already said Brazilian ethacane ``isn't competing with food'' and ``is more respectful to the environment than the corn-based ethanol in the U.S. and Europe.''
Sooner or later, the WTO might have the chance to decide whether the world can finally have a real substitute for oil. Until then, we'll have to live in a world where fake goods are passed off as the real thing.
(Alexandre Marinis, political economist and founding partner of Mosaico Economia Politica, is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)

Brazil's debate over new oil wealth heats up

Thu Aug 28, 2008 11:40am EDT
By Todd Benson
SAO PAULO (Reuters) - Brazilians have long joked that Brazil is the country of the future, and always will be. But since massive oil reserves were found off its coast last year, many feel the future may have finally arrived.
From the halls of Congress in Brasilia to the bars of Sao Paulo, Brazilians are fiercely debating what to do with the newfound oil wealth. Newspapers are running cover stories and editorials on the issue almost daily, drawing parallels to a "The Oil is Ours" campaign that led to the creation of state petroleum company Petrobras in the 1950s.
President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is also talking up Brazil's oil potential at every turn, calling the reserves a gift from God that should be used primarily to benefit the poor instead of Petrobras shareholders and foreign oil companies.
But critics worry the government may end up squandering a huge development opportunity by nationalizing the reserves, which could foment corruption and inefficiency.
"This is a debate that promises to heat up even more," said Sergio Fausto, a political scientist at the Fernando Henrique Cardoso Institute in Sao Paulo.
"It's all about natural resources, symbols of national wealth, the future, and that's creating expectations that the country can leap to a new level."
Brazil began imagining itself as an oil superpower when Petrobras (PETR4.SA: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz)(PBR.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) announced last November it had found an offshore reserve in the Santos basin off Rio de Janeiro holding 5 billion to 8 billion barrels of light crude, the world's second-biggest oil find in the last 20 years.
Since then, more data has emerged suggesting that as much as 80 billion barrels worth of oil might lie deep below the seabed in a huge area off Brazil's southern coast.
If true, that would vault Brazil -- which still occasionally has to import oil to meet domestic demand -- into the top 10 of the world's oil producers.
Although it will likely take years and hundreds of billions of dollars to extract the oil, which lies below a thick layer of salt, the Lula government is already making plans for the flood of revenue it will bring.
A former metalworker who grew up poor, Lula wants to use the money to tackle Brazil's most glaring social blemishes: endemic poverty and a shabby education system. In a world where cheap oil seems a thing of the past, Lula sees a chance for Brazil to cash in and join the ranks of developed nations.
At first, the reserves also looked like a sure windfall for Petrobras, a pioneer in deep-sea drilling technology. But the government appears intent on rewriting the country's oil law to gain more control over the reserves, raising doubts about Petrobras' role in managing and developing the new fields.
On several occasions in recent weeks, Lula said the oil "belongs to Brazil, not to Petrobras." In doing so, he helped push Petrobras' share price sharply lower and irked many Brazilians who see the company as a source of national pride.
LOOKING TO NORWAY
Drawing inspiration from oil-rich Norway for ideas on how to manage the reserves, some government officials advocate creating a new state company to oversee the subsalt fields. Brazilians have already nicknamed the proposed company "Petrosal," or "Petrosalt."
That would involve adopting a production-sharing model in which the new state firm would own the rights to the reserves but would leave production to Petrobras and foreign firms already operating in the area, such as ExxonMobil Corp (XOM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and Shell (RDSa.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz).
Currently, Brazil auctions off the rights to oil blocks to the highest bidder and charges royalties and taxes in return.
In addition, the government may raise royalties and taxes on the subsalt blocks where Petrobras and its foreign partners already operate -- concessions that officials say will be honored. It is also studying raising its stake in Petrobras.
The idea of a new state oil company is proving controversial. Petrobras' chief executive Jose Sergio Gabrielli has said there is no need for a new company to manage the reserves. And any attempt to change the rules governing the oil sector is likely to face opposition in Congress.
"Why change a model that has been hugely successful in Brazil, a model that was responsible for the discovery of the subsalt reserves in the first place?" said Adriano Pires, a former director at Brazil's National Petroleum Agency.
Hoping to sway public opinion, Lula plans to dip his hands in the first oil from below the salt layer next week and talk up the significance of the finds on national television on September 7, Brazil's independence day. The armed forces are also planning offshore maneuvers in the subsalt areas to show that Brazil is prepared to defend its oil wealth.
Experts warn that Brazil should step cautiously to avoid the mistakes that led other developing countries to squander huge oil resources through mismanagement and corruption.
"One of the biggest temptations, which always leads to problems, is to try to accelerate development and move fast into some kind of great leap forward," said Terry Karl, a political scientist at Stanford University and the author of "The Paradox of Plenty: Oil Booms and Petro-States."
"Brazil has all the ingredients to get it right. But they need to move slowly, be transparent, and have a broad national debate about what their priorities are," she said. "If they do that, it's possible that this could turn out different than it has in other parts of the world."
(Editing by Stuart Grudgings and Kieran Murray)

FACTBOX: Possible changes to Brazil's oil laws

Thu Aug 28, 2008 11:40am EDT
(Reuters) - Brazil's government is studying ways to take greater control over the oil industry following huge subsalt reserve discoveries made by state energy company Petrobras (PETR4.SA: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz)(PBR.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) off its southern coast.
The Tupi field announced by Petrobras in November has estimated recoverable reserves of between 5 billion and 8 billion barrels, 85 percent of which is light crude, making it the world's second-biggest oil find in the past 20 years.
Potential further subsalt oil reserves stretching for 500 miles along the coast from Espirito Santo to Santa Catarina state could push Brazil above Nigeria to become the world's 10th biggest oil producer, Petrobras says.
Here are some of the possible changes to the law and different models believed to be under consideration.
A NEW STATE FIRM
The government could create a separate state company to manage oil exploration and production contracts in the subsalt cluster. The new entity, which has already been nicknamed Petrosal, would be needed if the government decides to shift to a production-sharing model. It would also have to be approved by Congress, which could lead to delays.
PRODUCTION-SHARING MODEL
Under this system, the government would own the oil but pay companies with part of the proceeds. Petrobras and its partners in the subsalt discoveries, including Galp (GALP.LS: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), ExxonMobil Corp (XOM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), Amerada Hess (HES.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), BG Group (BG.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), Repsol (REP.MC: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and Shell (RDSa.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), currently have control over any oil they find and pay royalties and taxes to the government.
BIGGER GOVERNMENT STAKE IN PETROBRAS
Instead of creating a new firm, the government could raise its stake in Petrobras to reduce the influence of its Brazilian and foreign minority shareholders. Newspapers have reported that some in the government are worried that Petrobras could grow too powerful with the new oil riches.
STICK WITH CURRENT SYSTEM
Most energy firms hope the government will stick with the current model, under which companies buy concessions and own the rights to the oil they produce. In this scenario, the government could simply opt to raise the royalties and taxes it charges oil companies.
SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUND
The government's economic team advocates investing some of the revenue from the subsalt oil reserves in an offshore sovereign wealth fund. This would help prevent a flood of oil revenue into the Brazilian economy, which could stoke inflation and further strengthen the national currency, the real BRBY.
(Reporting by Fernando Exman; Writing by Stuart Grudgings; Editing by Kieran Murray)