Gazeta Mercantil / Sabrina Lorenzi
17/12/2008
O Natal do ano passado frustrou o comércio, à exceção dos varejistas de tecidos e roupas. O Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística ( IBGE) constatou que, em dezembro de 2001, o volume de vendas do comércio recuou 2,42% em comparação com a quantidade vendida no mesmo mês de 2000, com queda em cinco dos seis grupos pesquisados. O segmento comercial mais afetado pelo desaquecimento generalizado foi o de veículos, motos e autopeças, com recuo de 20,56% nas vendas. A receita nominal acompanhou o declínio e registrou baixa de 17,46% em relação a igual período de 2000. O faturamento também encolheu em lojas de móveis e eletrodomésticos (-0,45%). Pelos cálculos do IBGE o volume de vendas caiu no varejo de móveis e eletrodomésticos (-4,45%), demais artigos de uso pessoal (-5,84%), combustíveis e lubrificantes (-0,32%) e supermercados (-0,8%).
quarta-feira, 17 de dezembro de 2008
Volume de vendas do varejo cai 2,42% em dezembro
Mercado de PCs no Brasil deve crescer menos que o previsto
TI Inside
17/12/2008
A IDC reviu para baixo as projeção de crescimento para o mercado brasileiro de PCs e agora estima uma avanço de 12,7% em 2008, com vendas de aproximadamente 12 milhões de unidades, número que representa em torno de 500 mil unidades a menos do que a previsão inicial da consultoria, que projetava um incremento de 18%.
Para 2009, a expectativa é de que as vendas de unidades se mantenham no mesmo patamar deste ano. “Até setembro deste ano, as vendas de PCs no Brasil totalizaram 9,2 milhões de unidades entre notebooks e desktops, um crescimento de 12%”, informou Luciano Crippa, analista de PCs e impressoras da IDC. Segundo ele, vários fatores contribuiram para esse resultado: o preço acessível dos produtos, o alto índice de confiança do consumidor, o dólar muito baixo e o nível de desemprego reduzido.
Crippa destaca que o terceiro trimestre foi o melhor do ano, quando foram vendidas 3,3 milhões de unidades, o que representa um crescimento de 6% em relação ao trimestre anterior e de 25% se comparado ao mesmo período de 2007. Já, o segundo trimestre de 2008 registrou vendas de 3,1 milhões de unidades, 9,9% superior ao trimestre passado e 25,2% maior ante o mesmo período de 2007. Enquanto no primeiro trimestre de 2008, foram vendidos 2,8 milhões PCs no mercado brasileiro.
O ano de 2009 não registrará crescimento nas vendas, mas os resultados serão tão bons quanto os de 2008. “O desktop continuará responsável pela maior parte das vendas e a taxa de crescimento dos notebooks será menor do que prevíamos”, avaliou o analista, ressaltando que o efeito mais forte da crise será concentrado no primeiro semestre, com uma expectativa de que a economia volte a reagir a partir do segundo semestre. “Para 2010, a previsão é otimista, já que esperamos uma recuperação das altas taxas de crescimento”, conclui Crippa.
Comissão de Valores investigará fraude de ex-presidente da Nasdaq
AFP
17/12/2008
A Comissão de Valores Mobiliários dos Estados Unidos (Securities Exchange Commission, ou SEC), que fiscaliza o mercado de capitais, anunciou, nesta terça-feira, que irá fazer uma investigação interna para apurar como a fraude aplicada pelo ex-presidente da Nasdaq Bernard Madoff não foi detectada antes, apesar das "repetidas" advertências.
Na semana passada, ele foi preso sob acusação de estar por trás de um esquema multibilionário e fraudulento de "pirâmide financeira" de cerca de US$ 50 bilhões. Procuradores federais acreditam que Madoff comandou a pirâmide, na qual eram prometidos retornos muito altos a investidores iniciais, remunerados com o dinheiro de quem aderia ao esquema posteriormente.
"A comissão tem conhecimento de que denúncias confiáveis e precisas alertando sobre a fraude de Madoff foram entregues ao pessoal da SEC de maneira repetida desde 1999", admitiu o presidente da Comissão, Christopher Cox.
A investigação vai se concentrar no funcionamento interno da SEC, com o objetivo de determinar se as regras vigentes foram aplicadas ou se devem ocorrer modificações.
Também será preciso determinar se os contatos entre o pessoal da SEC e a empresa ou a família de Madoff interferiram nas decisões tomadas pelo órgão.
O Wall Street Journal informou, no último final de semana, que a SEC investigou Madoff em várias ocasiões a partir de 1992, sem identificar indícios da fraude bilionária.
Desde 2001, a MAR/Hedge, uma publicação especializada em fundos de investimentos, questionava como os investimentos de Madoff podiam manter "tal regularidade e tal falta de volatilidade".
A publicação também criticava a falta de transparência na gestão e o modo arrogante de Madoff ignorar as perguntas de seus jornalistas.
A contabilidade fiscal rumo à convergência
Gazeta Mercantil/Finanças & Mercados / Hugo Rocha Braga
17/12/2008
Após quase um ano de discussões, as nuvens cinzentas que pairavam sobre a posição do Fisco a respeito das conseqüências do processo de convergência contábil, previsto na Lei nº 11.638, de 28 de dezembro de 2007, foram, finalmente, dissipadas com a edição da Medida Provisória nº 449, de 3 de dezembro de 2008. Instituído o Regime Tributário de Transição (RTT) para apuração do lucro real, os ajustes tributários decorrentes da adoção dos padrões internacionais de contabilidade foram disciplinados buscando a neutralidade fiscal dos seus efeitos sobre o patrimônio e os resultados das empresas.
O RTT é optativo e, sendo transitório, será válido, apenas, nos anos-calendário de 2008 e 2009. A opção deverá ser manifestada, de forma irretratável, na Declaração de Informações Econômico-Fiscais da Pessoa Jurídica 2009. Será obrigatório a partir do ano-calendário de 2010, inclusive para apuração do imposto sobre a renda com base no lucro presumido ou arbitrado, da CSLL, PIS/PASEP e COFINS, quando da entrada em vigor de lei que discipline os efeitos tributários dos novos métodos e critérios contábeis.
Assim, as alterações introduzidas pela Lei nº 11.638/2007, que modifiquem o critério de reconhecimento de receitas, custos e despesas computadas na apuração do lucro líquido do exercício, não terão efeitos para fins de apuração do lucro real da pessoa jurídica sujeita ao RTT, devendo ser considerados, para fins tributários, os métodos e critérios contábeis vigentes em 31 de dezembro de 2007.
Na ocorrência de disposições da lei tributária que conduzam ou incentivem a utilização de métodos ou critérios diferentes daqueles determinados pela legislação societária e pelas normas expedidas pela Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM), com base na sua competência legal, e demais órgãos reguladores, a pessoa jurídica deverá utilizar os métodos e critérios definidos na lei comercial para apurar o resultado do exercício antes do Imposto sobre a Renda e realizar os ajustes específicos ao resultado do período no Livro de Apuração do Lucro Real (LALUR) – ou seja, os ajustes de adição, exclusão e compensação, prescritos ou autorizados pela legislação tributária, para apuração da base de cálculo do imposto.
Ficaram, portanto, dirimidas as dúvidas sobre o tratamento tributário dos novos critérios de contabilização das subvenções para investimento e doações feitas pelo Poder Público, concedidas como estímulo à implantação ou expansão de empreendimentos econômicos. Idêntico tratamento foi dado ao registro em conta de resultado do valor do prêmio na emissão de debêntures. Em todos esses casos, a isenção tributária está condicionada à manutenção dos valores em contas específicas de reservas de lucros, além da obediência às demais restrições estabelecidas na legislação fiscal.
A Medida Provisória corrige, também, alguns pontos que estavam em desacordo com os padrões contábeis internacionais, como, por exemplo, a classificação dos grupos de contas patrimoniais, substituindo as denominações de realizável e permanente por ativo não-circulante (composto por ativo realizável a longo prazo, investimentos, imobilizado e intangível), e passivo exigível a longo prazo por passivo não-permanente. Todavia, manteve a expressão princípios contábeis geralmente aceitos, que deveria ser substituída por princípios fundamentais de contabilidade, ou, simplesmente, princípios contábeis. Também, não eliminou o equívoco conceitual existente na Lei nº 6.404/76, que classifica o patrimônio líquido como um subgrupo do passivo, em desacordo com o padrão internacional (IAS 1). Por outro lado, a MP disciplinou melhor o conteúdo das notas explicativas em benefício da transparência das informações.
Ainda há um longo caminho a ser percorrido para a completa convergência às IFRS. O Comitê de Pronunciamentos Contábeis está trabalhando, em conjunto com a Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM) e as demais entidades envolvidas com a matéria, no sentido de alcançarmos um patamar mais próximo dos países que aderiram às normas do IASB.
Sem dúvida, a Medida Provisória nº 449, regulando os ajustes tributários decorrentes dos novos métodos e critérios contábeis introduzidos pela Lei nº 11.638/07, trouxe tranqüilidade às empresas, neste momento de transição, além de representar um grande avanço rumo à convergência aos padrões internacionais de contabilidade.
kicker: Ajustes tributários foram disciplinados buscando a neutralidade fiscal dos seus efeitos sobre os resultados das empresas
UPDATE 1-Brazil's Oct retail sales fall 1st time since Feb
Tue Dec 16, 2008 6:30am EST
(Recasts, adds data on main retail segments, nominal sales)
By Elzio Barreto
SAO PAULO, Dec 16 (Reuters) - Retail sales volume in Brazil fell in October for the first time in eight months as consumers cut spending on appliances, shoes, clothes and furniture because of a global credit crunch and high domestic borrowing costs.
Sales volumes
The median forecast in a Reuters survey of 15 economists was for retail sales to have dipped 0.4 percent month-on-month. The estimates ranged from a 1.5 percent decline in sales to 0.8 percent increase.
Five of the eight sectors surveyed for the month-on-month data fell, led by a 4.4 percent plunge in sales of shoes and clothing and a 0.9 percent decline in furniture and appliances, the IBGE said.
October retail sales jumped 10.1 percent when compared with October of 2007. That was higher than the 8.8 percent median forecast of 18 analysts in the survey. Estimates ranged from 8.1 percent to 10.5 percent.
Nominal sales, as measured by total sales receipts and unadjusted for inflation, edged 0.1 percent lower month-on-month in October. Nominal sales jumped 16.7 percent from October 2007.
Retail sales volumes -- unlike total sales receipts via cash or credit card -- exclude inflation that could distort sales comparisons.
For a breakdown of retail sales data from the IBGE's Web site please go to: here (Editing by Walker Simon)
More Americans Hurt by Recession, Poll Finds
The deepening recession has eroded the financial standing and optimism of a broad swath of Americans, nearly two-thirds of whom say that they have been hurt by the downturn and that the country has slipped into long-term economic decline.
Washington Post
2008/12/17
A new Washington Post-ABC News poll also found that a rapidly increasing share of Americans — 66 percent, up from just over half a year ago — are worried about maintaining their standard of living. Nearly two in 10 said they or someone living in their household had lost a job in the past few months, and more than a quarter said they had their pay or hours reduced. And 15 percent said that at some point in the past year they fell behind on their rent or mortgage.
The poll captures the widening fallout from the faltering economy that policymakers are struggling to contain. The Federal Reserve yesterday cut its target for the federal funds rate to a range of zero to 0.25 percent, the lowest on record.
“They’re getting to be about as low as they can go,” President-elect Barack Obama said at a news conference yesterday before meeting with members of his economic team. “And although the Fed is still going to have more tools available to it, it is critical that the other branches of government step up. And that’s why the economic recovery plan is so absolutely critical.”
Obama has pledged to enact a massive economic stimulus plan initiating publicly funded construction on a scale not seen since work on the interstate highway system began half a century ago. In all, economists have estimated that the plan could cost more than $700 billion over two years, increasing a federal budget deficit that is approaching $1 trillion.
The poll found that nearly two-thirds of Americans support new federal spending to stimulate the economy, and majorities of both Democrats and Republicans back the idea. Concern about deficit spending, however, mutes enthusiasm for the stimulus plan. When respondents were asked whether they would back the plan if it increased the deficit, support dropped to 47 percent. Overall, nearly nine in 10 said they are worried about the size of the federal budget deficit, including nearly half who are “very concerned.”
Most, 55 percent, said Obama is off to a good start in dealing with the economy, which the vast majority of Americans call the No. 1 issue confronting the country. Ten percent said Obama is on the wrong track in terms of his economic vision. Nearly half expect Obama will be able to improve the economy “a great deal” or a “good amount.”
But the overall federal response to the economic situation gets low marks: Twenty-four percent approve of the way President Bush is handling the economy, and a similarly paltry 23 percent approve of the broader federal response to the crisis.
Democrats, Republicans and independents alike are highly critical of the federal action to address the crisis — among each group, more than seven in 10 disapprove. In part, the criticisms stem from skepticism that the government has put in place adequate controls to avoid waste and fraud in the use of federal money in the economic recovery effort. Only 30 percent are confident that proper regulations were enacted.
Overall, 82 percent said the country is headed pretty seriously off on the wrong track, and 54 percent call the nation’s financial predicament a “crisis.”
The number of those who said they have been hurt financially by the recession, 63 percent, is higher than the 53 percent who said they felt the pain of the 1991 recession. The stock market has added to the financial anxiety: More than half said their families have suffered because of the recent sharp drop on Wall Street, and nearly half lack confidence that they will have sufficient assets to last through retirement.
More than half worry about being able to afford medical care for a sick family member, and nearly four in 10 are concerned about making house payments and heating their homes this winter.
Big Oil Projects Put in Jeopardy by Fall in Prices
The New York Times
By JAD MOUAWAD
Published: December 15, 2008
From the plains of North Dakota to the deep waters of Brazil, dozens of major oil and gas projects have been suspended or canceled in recent weeks as companies scramble to adjust to the collapse in energy markets.
In the short run, falling oil prices are leading to welcome relief at the pump for American families ahead of the holidays, with gasoline down from its summer record of just over $4 to an average of $1.66 a gallon, and still falling.
But the project delays are likely to reduce future energy supplies — and analysts believe they may set the stage for another surge in oil prices once the global economy recovers.
Oil markets have had their sharpest-ever spikes and their steepest drops this year, all within a few months. Now, with a global recession at hand and oil consumption falling, the market’s extreme volatility is making it harder for energy executives to plan ahead. As a result, exploration spending, which had risen to a record this year, is being slashed.
The precipitous drop in oil prices since the summer, coming on the heels of a dizzying seven-year rise, was a reminder that the oil business, like those of most commodities, is cyclical. When demand drops and prices fall, companies curb their investments, leading to lower supplies. When demand recovers, prices rise again and companies start to invest in new production, starting another cycle.
As familiar as the pattern may be, the changes this time are taking place at record speed. In June, some analysts were forecasting oil at $200 a barrel and companies were scouring the earth for new places to drill; now, no one knows how low prices may fall.
“It’s a classic — if extraordinarily dramatic — cycle,” said Daniel Yergin, chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates and author of “The Prize,” a history of the oil business. “Prices have come down so far and so fast, it’s become a shock to the supply system.”
The list of projects delayed is growing by the week. Wells are being shut down across the United States; new refineries have been postponed in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and India; and ambitious plans for drilling off the coast of Africa are being reconsidered.
Investment in alternative energy sources like biofuels that had flourished in recent years could dry up if prices stay low for the next few years, analysts said. Banks have become reluctant lenders, especially to renewable energy projects that may prove unprofitable in an era of low oil and gas prices.
These delays could curb future global fuel supplies by the equivalent of four million barrels a day within the next five years, according to Peter Jackson, an energy analyst at Cambridge Energy Research Associates. That is equal to 5 percent of current oil supplies.
One reason projects are being shut down so fast is that costs throughout the industry, which had surged in recent years, are still elevated despite the drop in oil prices. Many companies are waiting for those costs to come down before deciding whether to go forward with new projects.
“The global market has been turned upside down since the summer,” the International Energy Agency, a leading energy forecaster, said in a recent report.
In today’s uncertain environment, a slowdown in spending is inevitable, according to energy executives who are devising their budgets for next year. Last year, spending on exploration and production amounted to $329 billion, according to PFC Energy, a consulting firm. That figure is certain to fall.
“We’re in remission right now,” said Marvin E. Odum, the vice president for exploration and production for Royal Dutch Shell in the Americas. But once the economy picks up, he said, “the energy challenge will come back with a vengeance.”
Oil demand growth has weakened throughout the industrial world. The International Energy Agency projects that worldwide demand will actually fall this year, for the first time since 1983.
So much surplus oil is sloshing around the world right now that some companies, including Shell, are using oil tankers for storage.
Oil prices have declined by more than $100 a barrel since July, returning to levels last seen more than four years ago. They settled at $44.51 a barrel, down $1.77, on Monday in New York, as concerns about the economy outweighed efforts by oil producers to stem the slide in prices.
Prices could drop below $30 a barrel, according to Merrill Lynch and other forecasters, if the Chinese economy slows drastically next year, which looks increasingly likely.
Different companies have different price thresholds for going forward with drilling projects. But across the industry, a price drop this big has “a dampening effect,” according to Mr. Odum of Shell. “The big uncertainty is how long this economic environment is going to last.”
The biggest cutbacks so far have been in heavy oil projects in Canada, where some of the world’s highest-cost production is concentrated. Some operators there need oil prices above $90 a barrel to turn a profit.
StatoilHydro, a large Norwegian company, recently pulled out of a $12 billion project in Canada because of falling prices. Similarly, Shell, Nexen and Petro-Canada have all canceled or postponed new ventures in the province of Alberta in recent weeks.
Producers are bracing for a painful contraction, and the drop in prices could crimp investments even in places where production costs are low. The Saudi monarch, King Abdullah, recently said he considered $75 a barrel to be a “fair price.”
The kingdom, which has invested tens of billions of dollars in recent years to increase production, recently announced that two new refineries, with ConocoPhillips and Total of France, were being frozen until costs go down. In neighboring Kuwait, the government recently shelved a $15 billion project to build the country’s fourth refinery because of concerns about slowing growth in oil demand.
The list goes on: South Africa’s national oil company, PetroSA, on Thursday dropped plans to build a plant that would have converted coal to liquid fuel. The British-Russian giant TNK-BP slashed its capital expenditure budget for next year by $1 billion, for a 25 percent reduction from this year.
In North Dakota, oil drillers are scaling back exploration of the Bakken Shale, a geological formation recently seen as promising, where production is more expensive than in conventional fields.
“People are dropping rigs up there in a pretty significant way already,” Mark G. Papa, the chief executive of EOG Resources, a small natural gas producer, recently told an energy conference.
Another domestic producer, Callon Petroleum, suspended a major deepwater project in the Gulf of Mexico, called Entrada, weeks before completion because of what it described as a “serious decline in project economics.”
According to research analysts at the brokerage firm Raymond James, domestic drilling could drop by 41 percent next year as companies scale back.
“We expect operators to significantly cut their activity in the coming weeks due to the holiday season, and many of these rigs will not come back to work,” the report said.
As scores of small wells are shut down, analysts at Bernstein Research have calculated that oil production in North America could decline by 1.3 million barrels a day through 2010, or 17 percent, to 6.14 million barrels a day. This decline, rather than cuts by members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, “will be the catalyst needed for oil prices to rebound,” Neil McMahon, an analyst at Bernstein Research, said in a conference call this month. The United States remains the world’s largest oil consumer.
The drop in energy consumption could afford some breathing room for producers, which had been straining in recent years to match fast-rising demand. But analysts warn the world can ill afford a lengthy drop in investment in energy supplies. To meet the growth in global population and the rising affluence expected in the future, the world will need to invest $12 trillion in order to increase its oil and natural gas supplies, according to the International Energy Agency.
“If we cut back dramatically on investments, we could end up in a situation where supply growth goes flat when the economy starts to recover,” said Mr. Jackson, the analyst. “The steeper the decline, the steeper the response.”
