segunda-feira, 17 de novembro de 2008
OCDE diz esperar que Brasil não caia na recessão
Segundo entidade, país enfrenta 'efeitos' de recessão em outras nações.
Secretário não quis sugerir 'receituário' contra a crise financeira.
Valor OnLine
17/11/2008
O secretário-geral da Organização para Cooperação e Desenvolvimento Econômico (OCDE), Angel Gurria, disse nesta segunda-feira (17) "esperar" que o Brasil não caia em recessão, a exemplo da maioria dos países industrializados.
"O Brasil cresceu 5% ano passado, mas agora seus principais parceiros já estão em recessão e isso tem efeitos", afirmou Gurria. Mesmo a China, com crescimento acima de 7%, deverá importar menos commodities.
Indústria e varejo ampliam negociações
Gazeta Mercantil/Caderno C / Wilson Gotardello Filho, Norberto Staviski e Juliana Wilke
17/11/2008
A instabilidade econômica, com a alta do dólar e as incertezas quanto ao ritmo de crescimento das vendas, tem modificado as práticas de negociação entre a indústria e parte do varejo neste final de ano. Ao invés dos tradicionais pacotes negociados até setembro para toda temporada, e poucos ajustes, os pedidos têm sido colocados a cada mês, em alguns casos, até semanalmente. As condições de preços são acertadas por curto período e, muitas vezes, alteradas. "Todo mundo fica esperando para saber como o consumidor vai se comportar e assim espera até a próxima semana", disse Lourival Kiçula, presidente da Associação Nacional dos Fabricantes de Eletroeletrônicos (Eletros).
Mauro Avila Correia, superintendente de marketing da BSH Continental Eletrodomésticos (BSH) - empresa do grupo Bosch Siemens Home Appliances que produz no Brasil os aparelhos de linha branca das marcas Bosch e Continental - informou estar negociando agora vendas para novembro e dezembro. Segundo ele, a valorização do dólar tem impactado nos preços das matérias-primas e dos produtos importados, por isso as negociações não podem ser muito antecipadas. "Conforme esses reajustes vão sendo repassados para nossa compra direta, temos que readequar. Temos que reavaliar isso todos os meses", explicou, acrescentando se tratar de estratégia de épocas de crise.
A coreana Samsung também está renegociando com maior freqüência as condições de venda neste final de ano. José Roberto Ferraz de Campos, vice-presidente executivo da empresa, afirmou que fechou os tradicionais pacotes, mas as condições estão em aberto e podem ser alteradas, se necessário. "No ano passado a coisa foi mais tranqüila. Fechamos o pacote e fizemos apenas uma pequena refinada. Este ano o pessoal está mais cauteloso", disse. Segundo o executivo, se a cotação do dólar ficar próxima de R$ 2,10, a empresa consegue segurar reajustes apenas com melhorias de produção, mas a situação muda se a cotação ficar acima disso.
FMI pede mais fundos para ajudar países contra crise
BBC Brasil
17/11/2008
O diretor-gerente do Fundo Monetário Internacional (FMI), Dominique Strauss-Kahn, disse que a instituição precisará de pelo menos mais US$ 100 bilhões para aumentar sua participação na ajuda os países afetados pela crise financeira internacional.
Em entrevista à BBC, Strauss-Kahn disse que o fundo tem liquidez suficiente para o futuro imediato, mas precisará de mais recursos ao longo dos próximos seis meses.
"O número de países com problemas ao mesmo tempo aumentou dramaticamente e eles estão vindo até o FMI para pedir ajuda", afirmou. "Então nós precisamos de mais recursos".
"A questão é conseguir lidar com o problema nos próximos seis meses, e eu acredito que todos os chefes de governo estão conscientes da necessidade de um FMI mais forte", alertou.
Economia do Japão entra em recessão
Rodrigo Postigo
17/11/2008
A economia japonesa, a segunda maior do mundo, entrou em recessão no terceiro trimestre de 2008, afetada pela crise financeira que derrubou os investimentos das empresas, segundo dados oficiais divulgados nesta segunda-feira.
O Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) do Japão retrocedeu 0,1% em comparação com o segundo trimestre, e 0,4% no cálculo anual, em conseqüência da considerável redução dos gastos em capital empresarial. As companhias japonesas se viram muito afetadas pela queda da demanda americana e pelas dificuldades para obter financiamentos dos bancos cada vez mais desconfiados.
Os números marcam a entrada oficial do Japão em recessão, que tecnicamente é definida como dois trimestres consecutivos de crescimento negativo. No segundo trimestre, o PIB japonês registrara contração de 0,9% em relação ao período anterior, segundo os números revisados publicados nesta segunda-feira.
"Estes dados mostram que a economia entrou em recessão. Existe o risco de que a situação piore ainda mais", admitiu o ministro de Política Econômica e Orçamentária, Kaoru Yosano.
Os economistas previam um crescimento próximo de zero no terceiro trimestre. O prognóstico médio era de uma leve progressão de 0,1% em comparação com o segundo trimestre, segundo uma pesquisa do jornal Nikkei.
O Japão se une assim à Eurozona, Alemanha, Itália, Irlanda e Hong Kong na lista de países e territórios que entraram oficialmente em recessão pelo choque provocado pela crise financeira mundial. A maioria dos economistas prevê que uma das próximas a entrar para a relação será a economia dos Estados Unidos.
BID planeja duplicar empréstimos a América Latina em 2009
Reuters / Elida Moreno
17/11/2008
O Banco Interamericano de Desenvolvimento (BID) planeja conceder 18 bilhões de dólares em empréstimos aos países latino-americanos em 2009, duplicando os créditos deste ano, para ajuda a região a enfrentar a crise financeira global.
A crise, que começou com os problemas das hipotecas de alto risco nos Estados Unidos --o principal parceiro comercial da América Latina--, foi um duro golpe nos mercados financeiros e nas moedas da região.
O presidente do BID, Luis Alberto Moreno, disse em uma entrevista concedida recentemente à Reuters que o órgão reduziu a estimativa de crescimento econômico para a América Latina no ano que vem, para 2,5 por cento ante estimava anterior de expansão de 3 por cento para a região.
"É um apoio muito significativo", afirmou no domingo o representante do BID no Panamá, Marcelo Antinori, ao ler uma mensagem de Moreno durante um fórum de banqueiros latino-americanos, na Cidade do Panamá.
"Embora as cifras da crise sejam muito grandes, para nosso banco significaria duplicar para 2009 os recursos destinados à América Latina", acrescentou.
A crise está atingindo principalmente as exportações da América Latina, além de provocar uma queda nas remessas que imigrantes nos Estados Unidos mandam a seus familiares. Isso se somou ao efeito da alta nos preços do petróleo e dos alimentos, ocorrida nos meses anteriores.
UPDATE 1-Brazil's Mantega: World at risk of depression
Fri Nov 14, 2008 3:21pm EST
By Pedro Nicolaci da Costa
WASHINGTON, Nov 14 (Reuters) - World leaders meeting to discuss the global financial crisis must come up with concrete, coordinated solutions to prevent a recession from turning into a depression, Brazil's Finance Minister said on Friday.
In particular, the Group of 20 nations should strive for both regulatory reforms and concerted government spending in an effort to revive flagging global growth, Guido Mantega told reporters after a meeting with the prime ministers and finance ministers of Britain, Japan and Australia.
"If we don't take quick action we run the risk of falling into a depression," Mantega said in an impromptu press conference in the lobby of the Four Seasons hotel, where the meetings preceding the official conference were held. "Rekindling confidence requires clear rules, more transparency."
He said expectations from the populations of the various nations were high that some real steps toward ameliorating the crisis would be taken.
Joining Mantega, Brazil's foreign minister Celso Amorim emphasized the importance of pushing forward with the Doha round of international trade talks, saying the world's large economies should be careful not to turn the crisis into an excuse for protectionism.
"Integrating global commerce is like riding a bike -- either you move forward or you fall off," said Amorim.
Amorim said coordinated fiscal action on the part of major economies was a top priority for Brazil, although he declined to give any specifics on how much his government was willing to shell out.
The United States, apart from a controversial $700 billion bailout that has so far failed to stem the turbulence in credit markets, spent $150 billion in an economic stimulus package mostly aimed at middle-income consumers. Congressional leaders have said they will soon try to push another dose of stimulus, perhaps even larger than the first, although the White House remains opposed.
China, for its part, says it has put aside $600 billion, an even larger sum compared to its total output than the United States, for spending measures aimed at reviving its long-standing expansion.
Brazilian officials did not seem to believe the need was as immediate in their country, which is still forecast to grow around 4 percent next year.
"Brazil is not at risk of recession," said Mantega, suggesting this rather benign outlook gave the country more wiggle room than its northern counterparts.
Still, the country has hardly been immune to the crisis, which began with rising U.S. mortgage defaults but has since devolved into the worst financial panic since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
The pain has been felt most acutely in the country's stock market, which has lost over half its values from peaks hit this summer.
Early on in this crisis, many experts had hoped emerging economies would somehow be shielded from the crisis, although a snowball of fear and risk-aversion soon put to rest such expectations for "decoupling." Most risky assets around the world have fallen in tandem, making government bonds one of the few places to hide. (Editing by Andrea Ricci)
Obama Wrote Federal Staffers About His Goals
Workers at Seven Agencies Got Detailed Letters Before Election
By Carol D. Leonnig
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, November 17, 2008; Page A01
In wooing federal employee votes on the eve of the election, Barack Obama wrote a series of letters to workers that offer detailed descriptions of how he intends to add muscle to specific government programs, give new power to bureaucrats and roll back some Bush administration policies.
The letters, sent to employees at seven agencies, describe Obama's intention to scale back on contracts to private firms doing government work, to remove censorship from scientific research, and to champion tougher industry regulation to protect workers and the environment. He made it clear that the Department of Housing and Urban Development would have an enhanced role in restoring public confidence in the housing market, shaken because of the ongoing mortgage crisis.
Using more specifics than he did on the campaign trail, Obama said he would add staff to erase the backlog of Social Security disability claims. He said he would help Transportation Security Administration officers obtain the same bargaining rights and workplace protections as other federal workers. He even expressed a desire to protect the Environmental Protection Agency's library system, which the Bush administration tried to eliminate.
"I asked him to put it in writing, something I could use with my members, and he didn't flinch," said John Gage, president of the 600,000-member American Federation of Government Employees, who requested that Obama write the letters, which were distributed through the union. "The fact that he's willing to put his name to it is a good sign."
The letters, all but one written Oct. 20, reveal a candidate adeptly tailoring his message to a federal audience and tapping into many workers' dismay at funding cuts and workforce downsizing in the Bush years. Many of Obama's promises would require additional funding, something he acknowledged would be difficult to achieve under the current economic conditions.
Obama spokeswoman Stephanie Cutter said the letters were intended to communicate to federal workers his position on their agencies.
In a letter to Labor Department employees, Obama wrote: "I believe that it's time we stopped talking about family values and start pursuing policies that truly value families, such as paid family leave, flexible work schedules, and telework, with the federal government leading by example."
Obama wrote to employees in the departments of Labor, Defense, Housing and Urban Development, and Veterans Affairs, along with the TSA, the EPA and the Social Security Administration. Defense was the only area in which he did not make promises requiring additional spending, the letters show.
Some worry that Obama may have overpromised, with program changes and worker benefits that would be impossible to achieve. "That strikes me as smart politics," said Jeff Ruch, executive director of Public Employees for Environmental Responsibility. "We'll soon find out if he can deliver when he has to deliver his first budget."
Obama repeatedly echoed in his correspondence the longstanding lament of federal workers -- that the Bush administration starved their agencies of staff and money to the point where they could not do their jobs.
In his letter to Labor Department employees, Obama said Bush appointees had thwarted the agency's mission of keeping workers safe, especially in mines. "Our mine safety program will have the staffing . . . needed to get the job done," he wrote.
Obama lamented to EPA staffers that Americans' health and the planet have been "jeopardized outright" because of "inadequate funding" and "the failed leadership of the past eight years, despite the strong and ongoing commitment of the career individuals throughout this agency."
World Leaders Pledge to Combat Global Crisis
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published: November 17, 2008
Filed at 5:39 a.m. ET
WASHINGTON (AP) -- With the global economy threatening to slip into a prolonged recession, world leaders have come up with a lengthy action plan they hope will bolster badly shaken investors' confidence.
The plan was produced at a weekend meeting of leaders of the Group of 20, which included the world's wealthiest countries such as the United States, Japan, Germany, Britain and France plus emerging powers such as China, Russia, Brazil and India.
But analysts say it will take more than one meeting, as unprecedented as this gathering was, to turn the tide for a global economy undergoing its worst upheavals in decades.
''This isn't going to have much impact on markets,'' said Sung Won Sohn, an economist at California State University's Martin Smith School of Business. ''They made a good beginning in formulating the financial architecture of the future, but the devil will be in reaching agreement on the details.''
C. Fred Bergsten, director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, said he would grade the discussions a solid B, a far better mark he said than he has given many of the annual economic summits of the Group of Eight major industrial countries.
''They did a number of good things and came up with some solid principles to guide future discussions although I think it is going to take more than four months to reach major agreements,'' he said.
The summit received tepid reviews in Asia on Monday, with analysts, investors and media saying the gathering was high on symbolism but short on action.
''To put it harshly, there is little point in trying to figure out ways to prevent a disease once a patient is sick,'' Credit Suisse Japan analyst Shinichi Ichikawa said in a report released Monday. ''The just-concluded summit came up with no specific prescription to alleviate the effects of the most serious international financial crisis.''
T.J. Bond, a Merrill Lynch economist in Hong Kong, said some investors were disappointed there was no explicit announcement of coordinated fiscal stimulus measures.
Asian markets were relatively flat despite confirmation Japan had slipped into recession. In Europe, stock markets traded modestly lower.
The G-20 nations agreed to hold another leaders' meeting before April 30, a little more than three months after President-elect Barack Obama takes office.
While the outgoing Bush administration stressed that Obama's team had been fully briefed on the G-20 discussions, analysts suggested that with all the problems facing the U.S. economy at present, Obama may not be eager to wade into the intricate details of international finance as one of his first orders of business.
But German Chancellor Angela Merkel disagreed, saying she was hopeful an Obama administration will participate fully in the G-20 efforts.
''I have not the slightest doubt that we will be able to proceed along the way we set out today,'' she told reporters at the conclusion of Saturday's meeting. ''This is a reasonable approach that the new president will surely support.''
Private analysts, however, noted that the G-20 joint statement papered over major disagreements between the countries. The Europeans, led by French President Nicolas Sarkozy, favor more government control over markets, while the U.S. position is that better regulation, not more regulation, is needed.
The emerging developing countries such as China want a greater voice in international financial institutions such as the 185-nation International Monetary Fund, setting up a conflict with Europe, which doesn't want to give up the voting power it has presently.
Even before the current financial crisis struck with ferocity this fall, these issues were the subject of heated debates and there was no sign at the weekend meetings that any nations had given ground on positions they had staked out previously.
Analysts said financial markets may be disappointed that the communique made only broad promises to ''take whatever further actions are necessary'' to stabilize the banking system and boost economic growth.
Some countries had hoped for numerical goals for increasing government spending by a certain percentage of a country's gross domestic product. The Bush administration resisted such a commitment, mindful that the U.S. rescue actions already taken could push the federal budget deficit above $1 trillion in the current budget year.
However, Obama and Democrats in Congress have talked about the need for a second stimulus package. With the U.S. economy showing signs of a sharp downturn, Congress likely will approve further assistance.
The National Association for Business Economics released a somber new forecast on Monday projecting that the overall U.S. economy, which shrank at an annual rate of 0.3 percent in the July-September period, would contract at a rate of 2.6 percent in the current October-December quarter.
Just a month ago they predicted the economy would post a 0.1 percent GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter.
''Business economists became decidedly more pessimistic on the economic outlook for the next several quarters as a result of the intensification of credit market stresses,'' said NABE President Chris Varvares, chief economist at Macroeconomic Advisers.
The NABE panel of 50 top private forecasters said they expected the economy would shrink again in the first three months of next year, and they predicted the unemployment rate, currently at a 14-year high of 6.5 percent, would rise to 7.5 percent by the end of 2009.
By wide margins, the panel believed that the recession and severe financial crisis that began in the United States would engulf much of the global economy.
The NABE panel predicted that Britain and much of the rest of Europe, Japan, Canada and Mexico would all suffer recessions in coming months while China and India were expected to see slower growth but avoid outright contractions.
President George W. Bush, who served as host for the G-20 discussions, said it was the seriousness of the current crisis that had convinced him that massive government intervention was warranted.
He said he felt ''extraordinary measures'' were needed after being told ''if you don't take decisive measures then it's conceivable that our country could go into depression greater than the Great Depression.''
