Governo prepara ofensiva para elevar exportações

Agência Estado
17/02/2009
Diante dos temores de desaquecimento econômico, o governo brasileiro decidiu nadar contra a corrente negativa e partir para o ataque na tentativa de garantir o fluxo de comércio no mercado internacional. Os resultados negativos da balança comercial no início de 2009 impuseram ao governo uma dura realidade, que exige, segundo o secretário de Comércio Exterior do Ministério do Desenvolvimento, Indústria e Comércio Exterior (MDIC), Welber Barral, agressividade nas negociações bilaterais com parceiros prioritários, na conquista de novos mercados e na manutenção daqueles onde o Brasil já tem participação.
O ministro do Desenvolvimento, Miguel Jorge, decidiu na quinta-feira da semana passada, com sua equipe, que irá liderar as missões comerciais para países prioritários. "O ministro vai se engajar em mais missões, além das que já estão programadas", informou Barral à Agência Estado. Já estão agendadas para este ano missões comerciais para Rússia, Moçambique, Angola e África do Sul. Na semana passada, o ministério lançou uma agenda de eventos internacionais programados para 2009 para dar transparências às ações de comércio exterior e ajudar o setor privado a se organizar.
O secretário explicou que a estratégia do governo também será a de levar para as reuniões bilaterais todas as reclamações recebidas do setor privado. "Temos uma preocupação sistêmica com o protecionismo", afirmou. A preocupação do MDIC não é compartilhada pelo ministro da Agricultura, Reinhold Stephanes, que acredita que a onda protecionista não chegará ao setor agrícola. "O mundo vai continuar comendo. Soja - quem produz? Brasil, Argentina e Estados Unidos. Vão continuar comprando do Brasil", afirmou.

Carga aérea vai crescer 5,7% ao ano no Brasil

Gazeta Mercantil
17/02/2009
O transporte de carga aérea no Brasil crescerá 5,7% ao ano, durante os próximos 20 anos, podendo variar entre 3,9% e 7,5%, de acordo com análise divulgada pela Boeing.
O analista de carga aérea da Boeing para a América Latina, Kai Heinicke, destacou que a expectativa é inferior ao da Agência Nacional de Aviação Civil (Anac), que contabiliza a chegada e saída das mercadorias o que, segundo ele, duplica os resultados.
No mundo, as previsões da Boeing é um crescimento de 5,8% para o transporte de cargas nos próximos 20 anos, podendo variar entre 4,8% e 6,7%. Já em 2009, o segmento deve recuar, acompanhando a retração do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) mundial previsto em 0,5%. A companhia é a maior fabricante mundial de aviões para transporte de cargas, responsável por 90% das aeronaves.
Segundo Heinicke, a previsão de maior crescimento para o setor é em relação à Ásia, com destaque para o mercado doméstico de transporte aéreo da China, que deverá crescer cerca de 10%, segundo previsão da companhia.
"As transportadoras asiáticas, entretanto, apostam em um crescimento de cerca de 20%. Se isso se concretizar, o desempenho do setor será ainda melhor", disse Heinicke, completando que a produção de aviões cargueiros acompanha a demanda pelo serviço de transporte.

Argentina rechaça 'Made in Brazil'

O Estado de São Paulo
17/02/2009
Industriais argentinos pediram ao governo da presidente Cristina Kirchner que "não se deixe pressionar" pelo empresariado brasileiro e continue adotando medidas protecionistas para restringir a entrada no país de produtos "made in Brazil" (fabricados no Brasil). Sintomática e estrategicamente, o pedido foi realizado antes da partida de um grupo de ministros argentinos, que chega hoje a Brasília para se reunir com representantes do governo brasileiro.
O Brasil pretende oferecer linhas de financiamento para as exportações argentinas para tentar desarmar a onda protecionista do país vizinho. Hoje, no Itamaraty, a Argentina estará representada pelos ministros Jorge Taiana, das Relações Exteriores, Carlos Fernández, da Economia, e Débora Giorgi, da Produção. Do lado brasileiro, os ministros Celso Amorim, das Relações Exteriores, Guido Mantega, da Fazenda, e Miguel Jorge, do Desenvolvimento, Indústria e Comércio Exterior. Ontem, na véspera da viagem do grupo, o ministro de Assuntos Estratégicos do Brasil, Roberto Mangabeira Unger, iniciava em Buenos Aires uma visita de dois dias com a missão de debater com o governo argentino, empresários e sindicalistas como os dois países vão enfrentar a crise global.
Ao longo de janeiro, a Argentina aplicou licenças não automáticas para a entrada de pneus e multiprocessadores de alimentos. Além disso, aplicou preço mínimo para a entrada de 50 tipos de tubos de aço e ferro e, desde a semana passada, entrou em vigor mais uma série de restrições para 800 novos produtos provenientes de todo o mundo, atingindo as vendas brasileiras de têxteis. Na semana passada, o presidente da Federação das Indústrias do Estado de São Paulo (Fiesp), Paulo Skaf, pediu ao governo que adote "retaliações" para compensar o protecionismo do governo argentino.

Amorim pede criatividade de Brasil e Argentina na crise

Rodrigo Postigo
17/02/2009
O ministro das Relações Exteriores Celso Amorim afirmou nesta segunda-feira que Brasil e Argentina devem ser "criativos" e buscar fórmulas que permitam que ambos avancem na integração, apesar dos obstáculos criados ao Mercosul pela crise financeira global.
"Não creio que haja fórmulas fáceis, mas o importante é poder reforçar a integração", afirmou Amorim, que na quarta-feira receberá em Brasília o chanceler argentino, Jorge Taiana.
A crise financeira internacional provocou alguns temores no Mercosul, formado também por Uruguai e Paraguai, no sentido de que possa originar medidas "protecionistas" no interior do bloco.

Shipping Index’s 147% Rise Signals Jump in Commodity Currencies

By Ye Xie and Candice Zachariahs
Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Shipping costs have more than doubled this year, so it may be time to buy kroner, Aussies and loonies.
The 147 percent jump in ocean-transport prices is evidence that China’s $580 billion stimulus plan will lift raw materials, said Ihab Salib, who oversees $3 billion at Federated Investments Inc. in Pittsburgh. That would benefit countries exporting them, so Salib is “actively trading” Norway’s kroner and Australian and Canadian dollars, nicknamed Aussies and loonies.
Salib and other currency traders have started using the Baltic Dry Index’s global gauge of raw-material shipping costs to help make such decisions. The index and the value of a basket of those three resource-rich countries’ currencies are increasingly moving in tandem -- 96 percent of the time in the past year, up from 84 percent in the past decade, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
“Historically, the Baltic Dry Index is a good leading indicator for commodity prices,” said Salib, who declined to detail his investments. “Commodities are very depressed right now, and they offer good long-term value. Once they come back, these currencies should do well.”
The shipping gauge is a sign that China’s stimulus spending on housing, highways, airports and power grids will have impact beyond its borders. By Feb. 28, it will have spent 25 percent of its stimulus budget, Deutsche Bank AG said Jan. 20, predicting the country’s economy will grow at a 12 percent annual rate between the fourth and first quarter, after shrinking 2.3 percent between the third and fourth.
Oil Rebound
China is the world’s biggest consumer of copper and iron ore and has helped each rally this year by about 10 percent, benefiting Australia and Canada, which account for 10 percent of world production of the two metals. Oil, Norway’s top export, will average $66 a barrel in the fourth quarter, up from an average of $40.62 since Jan. 1, according to the median forecast of 34 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. China is the world’s second-biggest energy user.
“If a China recovery helps to set a floor on commodity prices, it should be an important boost to commodity-linked currencies,” said Jim McCormick, Citigroup Inc.’s London-based global head of currencies, in a Feb. 5 report.
So far this year, the krone is the second-best performer among the 16 most-actively traded currencies after Brazil’s real, rising 1 percent versus the U.S. dollar to 6.8814 as of 8:14 a.m. in Tokyo. The Australian dollar dropped 7.4 percent to 65.06 U.S. cents. The Canadian dollar weakened 1.9 percent to C$1.2424.
Tracking the Index
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicts the Australian dollar will appreciate 9.5 percent to 71 cents in six months and the krone will gain 13 percent to 6 per dollar. Though Goldman sees the Canadian dollar little changed at C$1.25, the loonie has tracked the shipping index 72 percent of the time for the past five years.
A comparison of the three currencies’ U.S. dollar values and the shipping index shows that the former often follow the latter, which is compiled by the Baltic Exchange, a London maritime organization named for the 18th Century coffee shop to which it traces its roots.
The index hit a 2 1/2-year low on Nov. 7, 2001, following the 9/11 attacks. By eight months later, the three currencies had gained an average of 9 percent. The index peaked at 11,793 on May 20, 2008. By July, the Aussie, loonie and krone all were falling steadily; in the year’s second half, they declined 27 percent, 16 percent and 27 percent, respectively. The index’s climb to this year’s Feb. 11 peak of 2055 followed a 92 percent decline in 2008.
‘Dismissed’ Significance
Richard Benson, who oversees $14 billion in currency funds at Millennium Asset Management in London, said many of his peers “dismissed” the significance of the shipping index when it started falling last year.
“It actually proved to be a very good indicator,” Benson said. “When you piece together different bits of information, and the shipping index certainly is one of them, you’ll find the market is moving in the same direction. There’s huge, huge potential for commodity currencies.”
Investors are betting on all three currencies, with net flows into them in the past three months as much as four times stronger than the past year’s average, said Samarjit Shankar, global markets strategy director in Boston for Bank of New York Mellon.
Millennium started buying Australian dollars this month and Norwegian kroner in January. Benson predicts that the krone will appreciate 5 percent to 8.30 per euro, and the Aussie will hit 72.50 cents versus the U.S. dollar, with “high 70s quite achievable.”
Bulking Up
David Tien, who helps money managers at Fischer Francis Trees & Watts oversee funds worth $29 billion as of mid-2008, said his firm has bulked up on the Aussie and the krone. Eight percent of the currency fund he oversees is in kroner and 15 percent is in Australian dollars.
Tien said the shipping index backs up other evidence that China’s stimulus is working, including its loan growth, which reached a record 1.62 trillion yuan ($237 billion) in January, twice the record set in 2008.
China’s “stimulus is really just getting under way,” Tien said. “What that means is, within about one month or two months, you are going to see a spur in commodity demand. We think it’s a great time” to invest in kroner and Aussies.
A rebound in hard commodities would benefit companies like Stavanger-based StatoilHydro ASA, Norway’s top oil producer; Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan in Canada, the world’s largest fertilizer producer by market value; and Melbourne-based BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company. Those companies’ shares have risen 5.6 percent, 18 percent and 5.2 percent, respectively, this year.
Hurting Exporters
A strengthening of the krone, Aussie and loonie would hurt exporters that report in their local currencies such as Melbourne-based Alumina Ltd., a partner in the world’s biggest producer of the material used to make aluminum, and Newcrest Mining Ltd., Australia’s largest gold-mining company, which returned to profit in the first half as prices of bullion in Australian dollars rose to a record on Feb. 12.
Spending by China alone may not be enough to drive up demand for commodities and related currencies. Last month, the International Monetary Fund cut its estimate for world growth this year to 0.5 percent, the weakest since World War II.
Joel Crane, Deutsche Bank strategist in New York, said in a Feb. 13 report that while “upward momentum remains in the Baltic Dry Index,” its growth rate may slow “in the coming weeks.”
Anthony Michael, who helps oversee $158 billion globally as Asian head of fixed-income at Aberdeen Asset Management Asia Ltd., said the Canadian dollar may lag the Australian currency.
‘Favorable’ Bet
“One of our most favorable currency bets is that the Australian economy is going to recover through being leveraged off Asia much better than Canada,” said Singapore-based Michael, who advises betting on the Aussie against the loonie.
Another risk is foreign-exchange volatility, which remains high. Options traders see major currencies swinging as much as 19 percent in the next three months, compared with the four-year average of 9.7 percent, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s G7 Volatility Index.
“Commodity currencies are attractive on a one-year- horizon,” said Steven Englander, chief U.S. currency strategist at Barclays Capital in New York. “First quarter, first half of the year? I am not sure. Longer-term, we expect them to appreciate significantly, but be careful about your timing.”

Brazil may challenge "Buy American" at WTO

Mon Feb 16, 2009 7:11pm EST
By Raymond Colitt
BRASILIA (Reuters) - Brazil may challenge the legality of a "Buy American" clause in the recently approved U.S. economic stimulus package at the World Trade Organization, Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso Amorim said on Monday.
"It's a complex legal analysis, but we're doing it," Amorim said. "(Going to the WTO) is a real option," he told the state television channel TV Brasil in a program to be aired later this week.
The U.S. Congress approved a $787 billion plan to jump-start the world's biggest economy on Friday, stipulating that public works and building projects funded by the stimulus use only U.S.-made goods, including iron and steel.
Major commodities exporter Brazil has been a key player in the Doha round of global trade negotiations, and had hoped the G20 group of leading economies would honor a November pledge in Washington to avoid protectionism.
Amorim said the U.S. move was counterproductive, likening it to a pain-killer that heals the symptoms of disease but not its cause. He said the Doha round was not dead but would be hard to revive.
"It's a bad sign. ... It's not positive at a moment when the world economy is trying to revive," Amorim said.
Chinese official media also blasted the Buy American provisions over the weekend, saying they were "poison" to the world economy.
U.S. business groups last week criticized Congress and warned the clause would dilute the bill's impact and invite other countries to keep American goods out of their stimulus programs.
Amorim said he thought Brazil could challenge the "Buy American" clause at the WTO, despite not being a signatory to an international agreement on government procurement.
Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will speak against global protectionism at the G20 meeting in London next month, Amorim said.
Amorim is expected to meet U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton later this month to prepare a visit by Lula to the United States this year.
(Editing by Stuart Grudgings and Todd Eastham)