Indicação ao Prêmio TOP BLOG 2009

Mercado de aviação no Brasil deve crescer mesmo com crise, diz Anac

Valor Econômico
24/04/2009
A crise financeira internacional reduziu o ritmo de expansão da demanda no setor aéreo, mas não impediu o crescimento do número de passageiros transportados no primeiro trimestre. Para o diretor da Agência Nacional de Aviação Civil (Anac), Marcelo Guaranys, o ritmo de avanço na quantidade de passageiros pode se manter ao longo do ano.
Entre janeiro e março, o número de passageiros transportados subiu 4,7% frente a igual período do ano passado, contra um avanço de 10,2% da oferta de assentos na mesma base comparativa. O resultado apresenta uma desaceleração frente ao crescimento de 7,4% da demanda e de 12,8% da oferta ao longo de todo o ano de 2008.
"Tem muito passageiro que ainda precisa ter acesso ao mercado aéreo. É normal que, mesmo em crise, ele continue crescendo", ressaltou Guaranys. "A nossa diferença para o mercado internacional é que não vai ter devolução de aviões", acrescentou.

Com baixas na exportação, produção industrial cairá 4,5%

Terra
24/04/2009
No primeiro trimestre do ano, as exportações brasileiras caíram 19% em relação ao mesmo período do ano passado. De acordo com o Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (Ipea), de a baixa se manter, 2009 encerrará com queda de 4,5% na produção industrial.
Os dados estão presentes na pesquisa "Radar: Produção, Tecnologia e Comércio Exterior", divulgado nesta quinta-feira pelo instituto e que mostra ainda "O grau de abertura da indústria brasileira, a despeito de ter crescido bastante nas últimas décadas, ainda é baixo em comparação com o resto do mundo".
Ainda segundo o Ipea, na média, a exportação industrial caiu 26% no primeiro trimestre de 2009, comparado com 2008. O setor mais atingido foi o automotivo, com redução de 51% nas vendas para o exterior.
"Os setores mais fortemente exportadores são os que, provavelmente, sentirão mais os impactos da crise internacional, caso as vendas externas caiam significativamente neste ano. Na indústria brasileira, os maiores coeficientes de exportação estão nos setores de madeira, couro e calçados, outros equipamentos de transporte, metalurgia e máquinas e equipamentos."

Brasil e Argentina ampliam CCR para US$ 1,5 bilhão

Estadão
24/04/2009
O chefe de Gabinete da Presidência da Argentina, Sergio Massa, anunciou hoje que os bancos centrais do Brasil e da Argentina assinaram acordo para ampliar de US$ 120 milhões para US$ 1,5 bilhão o Convênio de Crédito Recíproco (CCR).
O CCR é um mecanismo de compensação de moedas para comércio exterior existente no âmbito dos 12 países da Associação Latino-Americana de Integração (Aladi), mas a ampliação foi um acordo somente entre a Argentina e o Brasil. O CCR é usado pelos BCs para dar garantia às operações de exportadores.

Arbitragem movimenta R$ 844 milhões em 2008

InvestNews
24/04/2009
O apoio cada vez maior do Judiciário brasileiro à arbitragem tem possibilitado que as médias e grandes empresas recorram às principais câmaras do País para resolver seus conflitos, principalmente contratuais. Especialistas avaliam que, além do uso arbitral, o incentivo da Justiça também contribui para a especialização dos árbitros brasileiros e, consequentemente, há uma confiança do empresariado internacional em solucionar seus problemas no Brasil por meio da arbitragem ou recrutar a árbitros brasileiros em demandas internacionais. "O alto padrão de análises, a legislação - de acordo com as normas internacionais - e os baixos valores das câmaras colaboram para que cresça a arbitragem no País", avalia a professora Selma Ferreira Lemes, advogada e coordenadora do curso de Arbitragem do GVlaw - programa de educação continuada da Escola de Direito da Fundação Getúlio Vargas (Direito GV).
Levantamento feito pela professora constatou que os valores totais das causas acordadas nas cinco principais câmaras de arbitragem brasileiras (localizada em São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro e Belo Horizonte) subiram de R$ 594,2 milhões para R$ 844 milhões entre 2007 e 2008, o que equivale a um salto de 42%. "Este resultado mostra uma aceitação maior da arbitragem em negociações de grande porte." O perfil dessas causas são ligados às questões contratuais de diversos tipos. Para ela, os valores têm ligação direta com o aumento dos procedimentos, que cresceram 53% naquele período, subindo de 30 para 46 casos. Selma diz acreditar ainda que a tendência é que os dados continuem a crescer. "Está fortalecida a imagem de que arbitragem é um instrumento de comércio internacional. É mais célere do que a Justiça comum e com uma análise mais especializada nessas questões", afirma.

China shows the world how to get through a crisis

Financial Times
By Jim O'Neill
Published: April 23 2009 03:00 Last updated: April 23 2009 03:00
Call me mad but this crisis is good for China. It is also good for China's role and responsibilities in the world.
Yesterday, we upgraded our gross domestic product forecasts for China for 2009 and 2010; we are now looking for 8.3 and 10.9 per cent, respectively, up from 6 and 9 per cent.
Why the optimism? It was clear that the massive rise in exports, the mainstay of the China growth model until 2008, was not sustainable. At one stage in late 2007, Chinese exports to the US alone were about 12 per cent of total GDP. This meant that exports would suffer badly in the event of something going wrong with demand in the US, and the risk of a protectionist backlash.
This led some of us to expect an end to the fixed Rmb8.28 exchange rate to the dollar and a gradual shift to a more flexible, stronger exchange rate a few years ago.
Fast-forward to the crisis. When this intensified post-Lehman, global trade suffered enormously and quickly, and it was clear that Chinese growth would suffer. It was also reasonably clear that, just as they did in response to the Asian crisis in 1997, Chinese policymakers would react swiftly and shift gears. That they have done.
Three policy initiatives stand out, and the results are starting to bear fruit, hence our upgraded forecasts.
First, in November the authorities announced massive fiscal expansion, centred on fresh infrastructure spending. While my industry has quibbled about its true size ever since, this misses the point. The statement of intent was clear; interestingly, the stock market noticed and has rallied since.
Second, and ultimately perhaps the most important development in the world economy, the government announced plans to develop a full medical insurance policy for the still vast rural community, the beginnings of which it plans to have fully implemented for 90 per cent of the rural community by 2011. This could result in an end to the excessively high Chinese savings rate and allow much stronger consumption.
Third, and critical to our forecast upgrade, the authorities, led by the People's Bank of China, embarked on a timely reversal of tightening financial conditions of the previous two years. According to our Chinese financial conditions index, conditions have eased a huge 520 basis points since last October.
These three measures have set the scene for an acceleration of Chinese domestic demand for the rest of 2009 and 2010, just the right recipe for China and, critically, the world.
The next stage of China's development has started and is likely to go on for years. It was partly in anticipation of this that we highlighted owning China "A" shares as one of our most favoured trades for 2009. As they have risen 50 per cent since the November stimulus announcement, the entry point is now less attractive but, as evidence of rising demand accumulates, many investors are rightly going to be attracted back to China.
The "C" in the Bric economies (Brazil, Russia, India, China) has always been the most important of the four and the events of the past five months continue to justify our excitement for the longer term.
Amusingly, in the past year many people have suggested that the Brics story is over. Nonsense - it is still in its infancy. Indeed, the updated longer-term projections we published last summer, suggesting that China could overtake the US by 2027 and that the Brics collectively could be as big as the G7 by 2027, still look decent bets to me.
At some stage in the coming months, once it becomes clear that Chinese GDP growth is safely back above 8 per cent, policymakers will allow for some tightening of financial conditions again, possibly led by the exchange rate.
In the next two years, China is very likely to overtake Japan to become the second-largest economy in the world. Some say that China might get old before it gets rich, but it is getting bigger and richer, that is for sure. One or two of its ageing G20 partners may wish to take a closer look at Chinese economic policy to see how it's done.
Jim O'Neill is chief economist at Goldman Sachs

UPDATE 2-Emerging nations want IMF bond plan revamped-Brazil

Thu Apr 23, 2009 8:38pm EDT
(Adds Mantega's criticism of IMF estimates, comment on banks)
By Walter Brandimarte
WASHINGTON, April 23 (Reuters) - Brazil and other emerging economies are willing to provide additional financing to the International Monetary Fund but they are still not happy with the capitalization mechanism proposed by the institution, Finance Minister Guido Mantega said on Thursday.
The IMF is working on a plan to issue bonds to emerging countries that have offered to capitalize the institution, but the preliminary proposal presented by the board of the fund "still does not satisfy our demands," Mantega told reporters in Washington, where he was attending the IMF/World Bank meetings.
"We still have to improve this instrument," he said, adding that emerging countries such as Brazil and China will not make additional contributions to the fund while the new mechanism is not ready.
The minister stressed that Brazil would still make good on its pledge to contribute with as much as $4.5 billion to become a member of the fund's financial transaction plan, or the mechanism through which the IMF finances its loan operations.
But the additional pledge of $10 billion made by the country during a G20 meeting earlier this month would depend on the definition of that mechanism.
The G20 agreed to boost the IMF firepower earlier this month through the so-called new agreement to borrow, or NAB, an emergency facility that allows member countries to provide credit to the fund in case of severe crisis.
But Mantega said emerging countries are not happy about how the NAB was structured because it reflects the imbalances of current IMF voting power, which is dominated by rich nations.
He also called on the IMF to speed up a plan to issue $250 billion in special drawing rights to member countries, saying that would provide liquidity for nations to fight the global crisis.
IMF "WRONG" ON BRAZIL BANKS
Despite praising the IMF for its recently unveiled flexible credit line, which allows well-run emerging economies to borrow money without conditionalities, Mantega was much more critical about the fund's assessment of current economic conditions.
According to the minister, the Brazilian economy will still expand this year, and not contract 1.3 percent as forecast by the fund.
"The Brazilian economy is already recovering from that sharp economic slowdown seen last year," he said. "We are closer to the economic conditions of China and India than to (the conditions of) the United States or Germany."
Mantega also disputed recent comments from the IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn, who told Latin American newspapers that banks in Latin America could eventually hold toxic assets if the economic crisis lasts much longer.
"Brazilian banks are solid," he said, adding that comments like that can hurt investor confidence.
"If you don't get this straight right away, one can imagine that he has information that others don't. But he doesn't have more information than I do. I know deeply the Brazilian banks and I can say they are completely sound." (Reporting by Walter Brandimarte; Editing by Richard Chang)