Receita com tributos cresce mais que o PIB

Folha de São Paulo
11/12/2008
Mais uma vez, o volume de impostos sobre os produtos subiu acima do PIB: 10,1% em relação ao terceiro trimestre de 2007, segundo o IBGE. É a maior alta desde os 10,3% do primeiro trimestre de 2000. No acumulado de janeiro a setembro, o avanço dos tributos ficou em 9,1%, percentual também superior ao PIB (6,4%).
O motivo da forte expansão dos tributos reside especialmente no incremento das importações, segundo Rebeca Palis, gerente das Contas Nacionais Trimestrais do IBGE.
Com a alta de 22,8% no volume de bens e serviços adquiridos no exterior ante o terceiro trimestre de 2007, diz Palis, houve expansão muito grande do Imposto de Importação.
"As importações estão crescendo muito acima do PIB. Isso puxou o volume total de impostos no PIB."
Além desse efeito, Palis ressaltou ainda o fato de que os setores que mais recolhem impostos - principalmente ICMS - foram justamente os que apresentaram maior dinamismo no terceiro trimestre. Ou seja, cresceram mais e recolheram mais tributos. Ela citou como exemplos a indústria automobilística e os serviços de telefonia.
São três os principais impostos contabilizados no PIB que incidem sobre produtos: ICMS, IPI e Imposto de Importação.

Pesquisa: 29% dos varejistas esperam Natal 2008 pior

Invertia
11/12/2008
Segundo pesquisade perspectiva empresarial divulgada nesta quarta-feira pela Serasa Experian, 29% dos empresários da área de varejo esperam diminuir o faturamento no Natal 2008 em relação ao de 2007, segundo pesquisa Serasa Experian de Perspectiva Empresarial. No mesmo período do último ano, o índice de pessimismo era de apenas 11%.
O percentual de empresários que acreditam que o faturamento deve aumentar é de 39%, menor índice comparado às outras datas comemorativas de 2008, como Dia das Mães, das Crianças, dos Pais, dos Namorados e Páscoa. No Natal de 2007, em relação ao de 2006, o número de otimistas chegava a de 61%.
Os motivos apontados pela pesquisa para a cautela dos empresários nas expectativas para o Natal desse ano são a crise e os bons indicadores de 2007.
Entre os produtos que devem crescer em vendas em 2008 estão os celulares, computadores e jogos eletrônicos, que devem ser objeto de promoção no varejo. Já brinquedos, cosméticos, eletrodomésticos e eletrônicos, que são produtos mais sensíveis à variação cambial devido à necessidade de crédito, devem vender menos, de acordo com a apuração da Serasa Experian.
Segundo varejistas, os presentes com mais demanda no Natal 2008 devem ser os celulares, com 32% das preferências. Em seguida estão roupas, sapatos e acessórios (22%), eletrodomésticos (8%) e brinquedos (6%). A área de eletrônicos ocupa uma das últimas posições com um índice de 2%, bem abaixo do ano anterior em que ficou na terceira colocação da demanda com 17% das preferências dos consumidores.

Moody´s não acredita em recessão na América Latina

Rodrigo Postigo
11/12/2008
A agência de classificação de riscos Moody's acredita que, em 2009, a América Latina enfrentará uma desaceleração econômica, dada a deterioração das condições da economia no mundo todo, mas não deverá entrar em recessão, disse em um relatório divulgado nesta quarta-feira.
"Por sorte, a América Latina está em uma situação macroeconômica muito melhor (do que outras regiões), o que a torna mais resistente aos choques externos", disse a agência. O estudo também prevê que a região crescerá a um ritmo de 2,8% em 2009.
Os analistas da Moody's prevêem que, graças a esse cenário macroeconômico favorável, a região teve chances de se defender dos efeitos da crise financeira internacional e "muito provavelmente será capaz de evitar a recessão".
De acordo com a agência, por enquanto, o setor financeiro é o que mais sentiu o impacto da crise externa, devido, em parte, a uma maior aversão ao risco. Mas "houve muito pouca contaminação da economia real", acrescenta o relatório.
A Moody's disse ainda que, em 2008, a América Latina demonstrou uma "sólida resistência" ao impacto da crise internacional, e que, durante os três primeiros trimestres do ano, não foram percebidos maiores sinais de desaceleração econômica.

Câmara dos EUA aprova plano de resgate para montadoras

Gazeta Mercantil
11/12/2008
Os membros da Câmara de Representantes dos Estados Unidos aprovaram na noite de ontem um pacote de socorro de US$ 15 bilhões para as principais montadoras norte-americanas. O texto foi aprovado por 237 votos contra 170.
O projeto prevê a liberação, de forma imediata, de até US$ 15 bilhões em empréstimos para General Motors, Chrysler e Ford. Inicialmente, as três principais fabricantes de veículos do país pediam US$ 34 bilhões para evitar a falência.
"Esperamos que a Casa Branca mantenha sua palavra" de firmar o texto aprovado pelos representantes, declarou a democrata Nancy Pelosi, presidente da Câmara.
O texto seguirá agora para o Senado, onde deverá enfrentar séria resistência por parte dos senadores republicanos.

Brasil aumentará contribuição a fundo do Mercosul

Rodrigo Postigo
12/11/2008
O Brasil pretende aumentar sua contribuição ao Fundo para a Convergência Estrutural do Mercosul (Focem) para US$ 140 milhões anuais e colocará isso na cúpula do bloco na próxima semana, disseram nesta quarta-feira fontes oficiais.
O diretor para o Mercosul da Chancelaria, Bruno Bath, explicou que a decisão de elevar de US$ 70 a US$ 140 milhões a contribuição do Brasil já foi tomada e é de caráter individual, por essa razão não obrigará os outros membros a reproduzi-la.
No entanto, frisou que os estatutos do Focem não contemplam a possibilidade de que as contribuições sejam aumentadas individualmente, o que levará o Brasil a colocar uma reforma a fim de que seja permitido.
O Focem foi constituído em julho de 2005 para financiar planos de desenvolvimento e infra-estrutura e a cada ano recebe US$ 100 milhões, fornecidos por Brasil (70%), Argentina (27%), Uruguai (2%) e Paraguai (1%).
Segundo Bath, o Brasil colocará sua decisão de duplicar sua contribuição na cúpula semestral que o bloco realizará nas próximas segunda e terça-feira na Costa do Sauípe. O Brasil também acredita que será possível concluir a negociação para a eliminação da dupla tarifa que se aplica a todo produto que entre ao bloco quando transita para outro país dentro do Mercosul.
No entanto, o funcionário explicou que ainda existem aspectos a definir e esclareceu que, caso se chegue a algum acordo, a eliminação seria paulatina e começaria só com alguns produtos que ainda não foram precisados.

UPDATE 2-Brazil cenbank holds rates, opens way for rate cut

Wed Dec 10, 2008 7:30pm EST
(Recasts, adds economist quotes and byline)
By Ana Nicolaci da Costa
BRASILIA, Dec 10 (Reuters) - Brazil's central bank kept interest rates steady on Wednesday for a second meeting in a row but opened the way for a rate cut on mounting signs the Latin American giant is beginning to feel the weight of a global financial crisis.
The bank's monetary policy committee, known as Copom, voted unanimously to keep its Selic rate on hold at 13.75 percent -- its highest level in almost two years.
The decision was widely expected, with 24 out of 25 economists polled by Reuters last week expecting a pause and only one betting on a 25-basis-point rate cut.
The central bank said it considered cutting rates, but opted for a pause because of the uncertain economic climate.
"The majority of the committee members discussed cutting rates already in this meeting, but given that the macroeconomic climate remains surrounded by uncertainty, the Copom decided unanimously to keep the Selic rate at 13.75 percent," the central bank said in an unusually detailed statement.
"The committee will closely monitor the evolution of the inflation outlook to define in a timely fashion the next steps of monetary policy strategy," the statement added.
Roberto Padovani, chief economist at WestLB said: "It's a very clear sign that a rate cut is coming in January."
There is building evidence that Latin America's biggest economy is starting to feel the pinch of a global credit crisis that has dragged major economies into recession.
Recent data showed Brazil's industrial production slumping, car sales plunging and some companies, like mining giant Vale (VALE5.SA: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) (RIO.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), have begun to lay off workers and scale back investment plans.
But the slowdown has also helped ease inflation as retailers slash prices to attract customers, fueling a fierce debate as to whether Brazil's central bank should follow others around the world and lower interest rates to give the economy a boost at a time of global uncertainty.
The benchmark IPCA price index, which the central bank uses as a gauge when setting interest rates, eased unexpectedly in November, rising just 0.36 percent after a 0.45 percent increase in October.
"What probably motivated the (rate cut) discussion were the various signs that activity is losing steam," said Hugo Penteado, chief economist at Banco Real Asset Management.
"(The tone) surprises me a little because we are still worried about the fall of the currency. The statement is a sign that the Selic rate could be cut before previously thought."
In October, Brazil halted a cycle of rate hikes that started in April aimed at curbing inflation.
Markets were closed at the time of the announcement. (Additional Reporting by Aluisio Alves and Daniela Machado in Sao Paulo; Editing by Phil Berlowitz)

Downturn Choking Global Commerce

Chinese Exports Fall Furthest in 7 Years
By Anthony Faiola and Ariana Eunjung Cha
Washington Post Staff Writers
Thursday, December 11, 2008; Page A01
Sharply lower consumer spending in the United States and other high-income countries is stalling global trade, causing a surprise downturn in exports from China that is dramatically slowing its economy and rippling through other countries that rely on international commerce.
With recessions hitting the United States, Europe and Japan at the same time, China yesterday said its November exports took their biggest dive in seven years. Weak holiday spending is taking a particularly hard toll on toymakers: Two-thirds of China's small-toy exporters closed in the first nine months of 2008, according to government statistics. At the same time, tight credit and falling global demand are setting off the first decline in world trade in a quarter century, touching off a wave of job losses in rich and poor countries alike.
The drop in trade is both sharper and faster than many analysts had predicted only weeks ago, with freight lines that were sailing full this summer now slashing prices by as much as 90 percent as cargo traffic plummets and unsold goods pile up at ports from Baltimore to Shanghai. The World Bank this week said global trade is set to fall by 2.1 percent in 2009, marking the first decline since 1982. The drop is contributing to a more dire outlook for the world economy, which the World Bank said is close to falling into a global recession.
The slowdown illustrates how globalization, which fed rapid growth during times of plenty, can quickly turn against nations during times of bust. Depressed car sales in the United States, for instance, are spreading through the global supply chain, eliminating jobs for contract auto workers in Japan and laborers in South Africa who mine the metals used in car parts.
The impact on China, one of the rare lights in an otherwise gloomy global economy, is particularly troubling. Beijing announced yesterday that its November exports dropped 2.2 percent after a 19.2 percent surge in October. Imports took an even steeper drop, falling 17.9 percent. Analysts now say growth there is slowing to its lowest level since 1990, curbing Chinese demand.
Reversing Course
That is bad news for the United States and other high-income countries that were counting on sales to China and other emerging markets to help combat recessions at home. Earlier this year, an array of U.S. exports including Boeing jets and Caterpillar tractors were at least partially offsetting weak domestic demand. U.S. trade data to be released today are expected to show another jump in October exports. But analysts say those numbers do not reflect industry estimates that U.S. exports reversed course in November as the financial crisis deepened worldwide.
"You can essentially say the U.S. export boom is over," said Brian Bethune, chief U.S. economist for IHS Global Insight.
In recent weeks, the World Bank has had to step in with loans to exporters in developing countries because the global credit crunch dried up short-term trade financing needed to ship goods overseas. In one case, World Bank officials say, a Brazilian company had an overseas buyer for a large shipment of soy beans, but they rotted on the docks because the exporter could not secure the funds for shipping and insurance.
"Global trade is reversing course because it is a function of industrial production, and we're seeing the biggest coordinated slump in industrial production since the early 1930s," said Philip Suttle, director of Global Macro Analysis at the Institute of International Finance. "In the old days, you'd get weakness in one part of the world, and it would take three to six months to impact another part. But now, everybody is so interconnected through trade that the impact is happening instantaneously."

Auto Bailout Clears House but Faces Hurdles in Senate

Many in GOP Doubt Aid Will Save Detroit
By Lori Montgomery and Paul Kane
Washington Post Staff Writers
Thursday, December 11, 2008; Page A01
The House last night approved an emergency plan to prevent the collapse of the nation's domestic automobile industry, but the measure faces serious opposition in the Senate, where Republicans are revolting against a White House-brokered deal to speed $14 billion to cash-starved General Motors and Chrysler.
After battling through the weekend to reach a compromise with congressional Democrats, the White House yesterday dispatched Chief of Staff Joshua Bolten to sell the plan to restive Republican senators. But many GOP lawmakers emerged from a combative luncheon with Bolten unconvinced the plan would compel Detroit automakers to make the painful changes necessary to restore them to profitability.
After mostly partisan debate, the House voted 237 to 170 to approve the measure. But with Sen. Richard C. Shelby (R-Ala.) and other conservatives threatening to block consideration of the measure, even some Republican advocates of the bailout said it is unlikely to attract sufficient GOP support to win approval in the closely divided Senate.
"I don't think the votes are there on our side of the aisle," said Sen. George V. Voinovich (R-Ohio), a stalwart champion of the auto industry. "Some effort needs to be made to respond the concerns of my colleagues."
At the heart of the conflict is a debate over how to best help the car companies not only survive the deepening recession but rid themselves of a legacy of debt, high production costs and plush worker benefits that have left them unable to compete with their more nimble foreign competitors. GM, Chrysler and Ford have already moved to streamline costs; along with the UAW, they have offered to make additional concessions. But many Republicans think the automakers' problems could be more efficiently resolved by a bankruptcy court with legal power to dissolve existing contracts than by a government "car czar" whose actions could be swayed by Washington politics.
"Instead of the car czar, this ought to be titled the president's puppet," complained Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.), echoing the concerns of many of his GOP colleagues. Corker yesterday unveiled an alternate proposal that would force bondholders in the car companies to accept equity as partial payment; force the UAW to immediately reduce worker pay packages to match Nissan, Toyota and Honda; and ban compensation to idled workers, among other provisions.
"If we don't have the forced restructuring plans in place, many of us don't believe that American car companies will come out of this in a competitive position and the taxpayers' money will be wasted," said Sen. John Ensign (R-Nev.).
Ensign added that he fears a car czar would not have the expertise to deal with the auto companies. "When GM, Ford, Chrysler, their management teams have not been able to run their companies, obviously, very well, how does anybody expect some car czar or some politician to be able to make the decisions that are right from a business standpoint?"
Democrats have resisted forced restructuring, arguing that, under the Bush administration it could amount to open season on the UAW. They also sympathize with the automakers' argument that bankruptcy proceedings would scare off potential buyers.
"People buying cars want to know that they'll continue to have a relationship with an entity that can service the cars," House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank (D-Mass.), the chief House negotiator on the package, said during House debate.
Frank added: "The greatest illogic is to argue that somehow in the bankruptcy courts . . . you have a far greater degree of expertise than either" Bush or President-elect Barack Obama, with their teams of economists, could muster.
White House Deputy Chief of Staff Joel Kaplan defended the measure, saying "we think we've come up with the right solution." Kaplan, one of the chief negotiators for the White House, said President Bush would personally lobby senators in the coming days.