Jornal Economia em Notícia - Edição 46

Fluxo de capital privado para emergentes cairá 45%

EFE
13/10/2008
Os fluxos privados de capital para os mercados emergentes cairão 45% este ano, para US$ 619 bilhões, e diminuirão mais 10% em 2009, previu neste domingo a maior associação de bancos do mundo.
Segundo o Instituto de Finanças Internacional (IIF, em inglês), que reúne cerca de 400 bancos, os fluxos privados de capital para os mercados emergentes se mantiveram altos nos últimos 15 meses, mas os indicadores sugerem que "caíram de forma muito intensa em semanas recentes".

Europa volta a crescer já em 2009, diz diretor do FMI

'Recessão não deve durar', afirmou Strauss-Kahn.
FMI estima o crescimento da economia mundial em 3% no ano que vem.
Agência Estado
13/10/2008
O crescimento econômico da Europa deve ser retomado até o fim de 2009 e não haverá uma recessão "muito, muito longa" na região, disse o diretor-administrativo do Fundo Monetário Internacional (FMI), Dominique Strauss-Kahn, numa entrevista à rádio francesa Europe 1.
Segundo Strauss-Kahn, a recessão "não deve durar". Ele observou que o FMI estima o crescimento da economia mundial em 3% no ano que vem. Para a Europa, o crescimento estimado é de 0,2%, afirmou. Ele acrescentou que as perdas relativas à crise financeira ainda não foram totalmente registradas e apontou que o FMI agora prevê perdas de cerca de US$ 1,4 trilhão, contra uma estimativa de US$ 1 trilhão em abril.
"O que foi feito nos últimos três dias fornece a reafirmação de elementos numa situação que é muito irracional", disse o diretor do FMI. "Os mercados não podem ser deixados sozinhos e devem ser regulados", afirmou. "A confiança deve voltar", disse Strauss-Kahn. Ele assegurou que não há razão para clientes, investidores e empresários se preocuparem depois das medidas anunciadas ao longo do fim de semana.

Brasil e Argentina estudam aumentar barreiras comerciais

BBC Brasil / Maria Carmo
13/10/2008
Os governos do Brasil e da Argentina analisam a adoção de medidas conjuntas do Mercosul para tentar reduzir o impacto da crise financeira internacional no bloco.
Segundo negociadores dos dois governos, uma das principais medidas seria o aumento da Tarifa Externa Comum (TEC) para os produtos importados dos países asiáticos, especialmente da China e principalmente os do setor têxtil.
Uma maior barreira tarifária - hoje em 35% - tornaria estes produtos mais caros e protegeria a indústria local.
Há temores de que a crise financeira global e uma possível queda nas vendas em algumas regiões do mundo façam com que os exportadores asiáticos aumentem sua oferta de produtos ao Mercosul.
De acordo com a imprensa argentina, os efeitos do terremoto financeiro foram também o principal assunto de um telefonema entre a presidente argentina, Cristina Kirchner, e o presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
"A dúvida é saber se Paraguai e Uruguai aceitariam o aumento da TEC", disse um negociador brasileiro à BBC Brasil.
Segundo ele, a idéia é adotar medidas conjuntas para evitar que a importação "excedente" não ingresse no bloco através de algum dos sócios.
Esta e outras medidas deverão ser tratadas numa reunião – ministerial ou mesmo presidencial – prevista para a semana que vem, ainda sem data marcada.

Alemanha deve anunciar pacote de R$ 1,2 trilhão

BBC Brasil / Marcelo Crescenti
13/10/2008
O governo alemão anuncia nesta segunda-feira um pacote com garantias no valor de 400 bilhões de euros (cerca de R$ 1,2 trilhão) para estabilizar o setor financeiro do país.
Segundo informações vazadas para a imprensa alemã, a peça-chave do pacote alemão é a criação de um fundo para estabilização do mercado financeiros bancado pelo governo.
Esse fundo poderá ser usado para cobrir dívidas de bancos alemães. A condição do governo é que os bancos afetados provem que têm uma "política financeira sólida".
Em compensação, o governo ficaria com o direito de interferir nas decisões dos bancos em relação ao pagamento de diretores e do conselho fiscal da empresa. O governo poderá também receber ações dos institutos financeiros.
A premiê alemã, Angela Merkel, apresentará o plano nesta segunda-feira ao seu gabinete e o anunciará oficialmente por volta das 15h locais (10h de Brasília).
Um total de 70 bilhões (cerca de R$ 222 bilhões) de euros deverá ser usado para aumentar a liquidez do mercado e reativar o fluxo de empréstimos entre os bancos alemães.
O dinheiro poderá também ser usado como crédito para a aquisição de bancos em problemas por concorrentes.
O pacote deverá ser financiado com dívidas do Estado, o que pode levar o governo a não cumprir a meta anunciada de ter um orçamento balanceado e sem novas dívidas até 2011.

Euro Nations to Guarantee Bank Refinancing

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published: October 12, 2008
Filed at 4:04 p.m. ET
PARIS (AP) -- Nations in Europe's single-currency zone agreed Sunday to temporarily guarantee bank refinancing as part of a raft of emergency measures to ease the credit crisis.
The head of the region's central bank welcomed the unity -- but warned there is more work to do.
''The force of unity that we showed today is a fundamental element of confidence,'' said European Central Bank Chief Jean-Claude Trichet. But, he added: ''there are still many things to do,'' both by governments and central bankers.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy said the measures -- which range from help with liquidity and injections of capital to new accounting rules for banks -- will be enacted ''without delay'' in the 15 countries using the euro -- with simultaneous Cabinet meetings being held Monday in Italy, Germany, France and elsewhere.
However, there was no sum given on how much these measures would cost, and Sarkozy said each country would decide how much it would spend.
The rest of the 27-member European Union will have a chance to sign up to the measures when they meet Wednesday.
Sarkozy said he hopes to persuade the United States to agree to a broad summit involving all the world's major economies to agree on international measures.
Sarkozy chaired an emergency summit of leaders of the 15 euro-zone countries in Paris on Sunday to find European solutions to the global financial crisis.
Their final declaration said the governments would guarantee ''for an interim period and on appropriate commercial terms'' new debt issued by banks for up to five years.
''This scheme would be limited in amount, temporary and will be applied under close scrutiny of financial authorities until Dec. 31, 2009,'' it said.
The statement said that one way that governments could save banks would include buying big stakes.
Sarkozy said the measure taken by the leaders is ''not a gift to banks.'' He said it will be in place through the end of next year.
''Banks need to be loaned money,'' he said. ''So that this confidence is restored, states will have the possibility to guarantee the loans that banks take out, guarantee them under different forms.''
German Chancellor Angela Merkel said financial instruments agreed upon by euro zone countries will make the crisis ''a bit more manageable.''
''It will allow markets to start functioning again, that was our aim. It is a strong message to the markets.''
As the financial crisis drags down the global economy, world leaders are scrabbling for way to stop the panic. But efforts to agree a coordinated global response have stumbled as leaders seek to address the unique challenges of their own countries.
''It's not easy,'' said Sarkozy. ''We have different traditions. For some of us, we don't have the same currency. We have different regulators.''
But, he said, ''In a situation of urgency we had to take responsibility.''
Even within the 27-nation EU, some countries are facing the collapse of a housing market, some have had to step in to save banks, while others have faced different problems.
Finance ministers from the Group of 20, which includes rich countries and major developing nations such as China, Brazil and India, meeting in Washington this weekend, pledged to intensify their efforts to unblock a frozen financial system before it does more damage to an increasingly shaky global economy -- but made no concrete offers of new moves.
Following annual meetings by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund in Washington this weekend, the European leaders' decision will be watched closely by markets Monday.

Brazil-France defense pact wrong choice - analysts

Fri Oct 10, 2008 1:14pm EDT
By Eduardo Simoes
SAO PAULO, Oct 10 (Reuters) - Brazil will sign a strategic defense alliance with France in December that it hopes will boost the domestic weapons industry, but critics say it may be choosing the wrong military equipment for its needs.
As part of the pact, Brazil will build a nuclear-powered submarine and around 50 helicopters under license from the French. It has also short-listed France's Dassault (AVMD.PA: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) in a tender for at least 36 fighter jets.
Brazil, Latin America's largest country and economy, is planning to build up its military capabilities partly to help protect huge recent oil finds off its southern coast.
But defense industry analysts say U.S. or Russian aircraft are generally more suited to Brazil's continent-sized territory and that the nuclear-propelled submarine is too expensive and inappropriate for Brazilian waters.
"I don't think it's our best (choice) strategically," said Gunther Rudzit, a former defense ministry advisor.
Choosing France was a political compromise to neither depend on U.S. technology nor alienate Washington by choosing Russia, which supplies planes to the declared U.S. enemy Venezuela, analysts said.
"With (Russia's) approach to Venezuela, the United States said it wouldn't oppose a military accord between Brazil and France," said Jorge Zaverucha, professor of politics at the Federal University in northeastern Pernambuco state.
Brazil's leftist president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, maintains cordial relations with the United States but often distrusts Washington's interests in South America.
France's President Nicolas Sarkozy said in February he agreed in principle to have French submarines and helicopters built in Brazil and intended to sign a strategic alliance.
Brazil last year earmarked $880 million to complete a nuclear reactor it wants to mount on a submarine built in Brazil under license by the French.

Rush Is On to Get Rescue Plan Moving

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published: October 13, 2008
Filed at 6:43 a.m. ET
WASHINGTON (AP) -- With the world's financial markets on a stomach-churning ride, the Bush administration is scrambling to get a $700 billion rescue effort for the U.S. banking system up and running. And Europe's central banks began to take unified actions Monday aimed at easing the credit crisis.
The coordinated efforts by European and U.S. authorities to prop up the banking system brought a measure of relief to markets. European markets opened strongly Monday following Asia's lead in response to the widespread government initiatives.
The Bush administration, meanwhile, faced a daunting task as it moves to put together what will be one of the world's largest asset management firms while rethinking how the program should operate.
Neel Kashkari, an assistant Treasury secretary running the program on an interim basis, planned to give a progress report Monday.
In Europe, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank jointly announced they would work together to provide unlimited short-term funds to make money available to ease the credit freeze. The Bank of Japan said it was considering a similar move.
''The government cannot just leave people on their own to be buffeted about,'' said British Prime Minister Gordon Brown.
To assist the European banks, the U.S. Federal Reserve said it was taking actions to assure enough U.S. dollar funds were available to meet demand.
The British central bank was making available $63 billion to the three largest British banks to bolster their balance sheets.
The government move will leave British taxpayers owning as much 47 percent of the Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC, and 43 percent of Loyds TSB Group PLC and HBOS PLC, two British banks in the process of merging. A third bank, Barclays PLC said it would not seek government help as it boosts its capital by $11.4 billion.
''The hope is that today will mark a watershed, with vast measures of government reassurance finally rekindling some confidence in the shattered banking sector,'' said Keith Bowman, an analysts at Hargreaves Landsdown Stockbrokers in London.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said during weekend meetings with global financial powers that his department was working around the clock to carry out the plan. His comments were meant to convince investors that the world's largest economy is moving quickly to get lending restarted and avert what could be a deep and painful global recession.
Those dire concerns sent markets around the world reeling last week, giving the Dow Jones industrial average it worst week on record. Since peaking a year ago, the Dow is now down 40.3 percent. U.S. stocks have lost $8.4 trillion in value over the past year.
Throughout the weekend, the administration worked to restore confidence, using the annual meetings of the 185-nation International Monetary Fund and World Bank to send a message that global finance officials will do what it takes to resolve the crisis.
The Group of Seven major industrial countries issued a five-point action plan that pledged to do everything from preventing major banks from failing to unfreezing credit markets.
President Bush met with G-7 finance officials at the White House on Saturday morning and later traveled to the IMF to meet with the Group of 20, which includes rich countries as well as major developing nations such as China, Brazil, India and Mexico. He stressed the need for cooperation.
In Paris, the 15 nations in Europe's single-currency zone agreed Sunday to steps including temporarily guaranteeing bank refinancings.
The Bush administration over the past six weeks has taken over the nation's two biggest mortgage finance firms, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, rescued American International Group, the world's biggest insurance company, and won congressional approval of a $700 billion rescue package for the entire financial system.
As the bailout bill rushed through Congress, Paulson stressed that the major aim was to buy bad assets, primarily mortgage-backed securities, from financial institutions. The hope was that taking those bad loans off the books would encourage banks to return to more normal lending operations and unclog credit flows -- the economy's lifeblood.
Paulson said Friday that the government also would use some of the money to buy stakes in banks. The goal is to give banks the resources to resume lending at more normal levels.
That about-face has left the administration trying to decide how much to devote to buying bad assets and how much to use for stock purchases.
Lawmakers who pushed to include the stock purchase program in the rescue bill over initial administration objections say the stock purchases can start much faster than the effort to buy bad assets and help restore market confidence sooner.
Sen. Charles Schumer of New York, chairman of the Joint Economic Committee, said Sunday that he hoped the administration would announce as soon as Monday that the stock purchases were being launched.
''We're beginning a downward spiral, not just in finance ... but in the whole economy. We need quick action,'' Schumer said on ABC's ''This Week.''
Schumer and other Democrats lined up behind House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's plan to bring lawmakers back to Washington after the Nov. 4 election to work on a second economic relief plan of up to $150 billion. It would extend jobless benefits, increase food stamp funding and finance government construction projects.

Meta fiscal de 2009 pode ficar comprometida

Agência Estado
13/10/2008
O governo poderá ter dificuldades de cumprir a meta formal de superávit primário de 3,8% do Produto Interno Bruto(PIB) no próximo ano, caso a economia brasileira cresça menos que 2,5%, piso das previsões da equipe econômica para 2009. Nos últimos dois anos, a arrecadação federal tem sido puxada principalmente pelo Imposto de Renda da Pessoa Jurídica (IRPJ) e pela Contribuição Sobre Lucro Líquido (CSLL), tributos que incidem sobre o lucro das empresas, que agora corre o risco de despencar por causa da crise.
Entre 2003 e este ano, a arrecadação da CSLL e do imposto sobre a renda, ganhos de capital e remessas para o exterior cresceu de R$ 72 bilhões para R$ 172 bilhões, uma expansão de 137% num período em que a inflação mal superou os 30%.
Esse fantástico desempenho da receita, que financiou as contas do governo nos últimos cinco anos, deve desaparecer no cenário de 2009, mesmo que a economia brasileira continue crescendo. Já as despesas devem subir por causa dos compromissos assumidos pelo governo antes do estouro da crise, como o reajuste dos servidores públicos e do salário mínimo.
Apesar da maior dificuldade, o governo não vai reduzir os investimentos do PAC, disse, na semana passada, o ministro do Planejamento, Paulo Bernardo. Segundo ele, nem mesmo o superávit precisará ser reduzido, caso a economia cresça 4% em 2009. Para a equipe do Ministério da Fazenda, entretanto, a redução do esforço fiscal (em relação ao superávit de 4,4% do PIB de 2008) é tida como certa e necessária para compensar a falta de liquidez e a desaceleração da economia.
"Como a situação fiscal está boa, o governo pode fazer uma política anticíclica de país desenvolvido, reduzindo a taxa de juros e o superávit primário", disse um assessor do ministro Guido Mantega, comparando com a situação de 1999 e 2003, quando o governo teve de apertar o cinto.