Emerging-Market Stocks Sink in 2008, May Rebound on BRICs Rally

By Fabio Alves
Jan. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Emerging-market stocks fell the most ever last year and investors are looking for Brazil, Russia, India and China to lead a reversal in 2009.
The global economic slowdown and slump in commodity prices sent the MSCI Emerging Markets Index tumbling 54 percent in 2008, compared with a 38 percent drop in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and a 42 percent loss in the MSCI World Index. Developing- nation stocks are trading near their cheapest levels in a decade.
Mark Mobius at Templeton Asset Management Ltd. and Uri Landesman at ING Groep NV are snapping up stocks of the so-called BRICs on speculation global infrastructure spending and interest- rate cuts will help the economies avoid the recessions hurting developed nations.
“Global rate cuts and stimulus plans are going to drive consumption, which most likely will be spent in infrastructure, thus boosting stocks of materials and energy producers of countries like Brazil and Russia,” said Landesman, who oversees $2.5 billion at ING’s asset management unit in New York.
The 746 companies in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index now trade at 8.5 times earnings, up from 6.1 times on Dec. 4, the cheapest in a decade.
The MSCI BRIC Index lost 58 percent last year after demand for oil, steel, iron-ore, soybeans and other raw materials waned. BRIC is an acronym coined by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in 2001 to encompass the four emerging markets it predicted would join the U.S. and Japan as the world’s biggest economies by 2050.