Brazil May Have ’Bumper’ Sugar Cane Crop Next Year, ISO Says

By Luzi Ann Javier

Aug. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil, the world’s biggest sugar producer, may have a “bumper” cane harvest next year in response to an 85 percent price jump this year, said Leonardo Bichara Rocha, International Sugar Organization economist.

The country may gather as much as 35 million tons more cane in the 2010-2011 year starting May because plantings have not finished yet, Rocha said at a conference in Bangkok today. The harvest is estimated at 600 million tons in 2009-2010, he said.

Millers may use as much as half of that for sugar output if prices remain competitive against ethanol, he said in an interview yesterday.

“If there’s a huge drop in production somewhere and India does not increase production, which is very unlikely, then yes, it can go almost 50-50,” he said yesterday, referring to the share of ethanol and sugar output from harvested cane. Sugar may expand from an estimated 44 percent share this year, he said.

Brazil’s sugar exports may climb to 24 million metric tons in the 2009-2010 year from 19 million tons the previous year and ethanol shipments may decline to 4 billion liters from 4.7 billion, he said.