Argentina's Trade Surplus Likely Fell in September: Week Ahead

By Eliana Raszewski
Oct. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Argentina's trade surplus probably narrowed in September from August's record high as a global financial crisis undermined exports to neighboring Brazil and declining commodity prices reduced earnings from grain and oilseed shipments.
In September, the trade surplus fell to $1.4 billion from $2.25 billion the previous month, according to the median of a survey conducted by the central bank among 56 economists. The National Statistics Institute will release September figures on Oct. 24 at 2 p.m. New York time.
``September was a turning point,'' said Lorenzo Sigaut, an economist at Buenos Aires-based research company Ecolatina. ``Lower commodity prices that are affecting our exports are combining with the current global financial crisis that is affecting Brazil and our other main markets.''
The Argentine Industrial Union, an association that represents the country's largest manufacturers, said in an Oct. 14 statement that weakening currencies in the region will hurt the country's trade surplus and economic growth.
``The deepest international financial crisis in recent times, the recent depreciation of the currencies against the U.S. dollar, and also against the Argentine peso, will affect output, jobs and threaten the country's trade surplus,'' the Buenos Aires-based union said in an e-mailed statement.
Sigaut said the country will probably fail to reach the $12 billion trade surplus targeted in next year's budget bill.
President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner said on Oct. 14 that she would introduce safeguards on international trade to protect jobs and investments by local businessmen.
Argentina's customs agency has said it is preparing a list of reference prices for about 120 goods, including textiles and home appliances, produced abroad. The measure may result in increased import taxes on those items.
Markets Last Week
Last week, the yield on Argentina's benchmark 8.28 percent dollar bonds due in 2033 rose 84 basis points, or 0.84 percentage point, to 19.42 percent, according to Bloomberg data. The bond's price fell 1.95 cents on the dollar to 36.80 cents.
The Buenos Aires benchmark stock index Merval remained unchanged to 1216. Petrobras Energia Participaciones SA (PBE AF), the local unit of Brazil's state-controlled oil producer, rose 19.3 percent while Banco Macro SA (BMA AF), Argentina's fourth-largest lender, fell 14.4 percent.
The following is a list of events in Argentina this week:
Event Date
Budget Balance 20-24
Industrial Production 24
Shopping Center sales 24
Trade Balance 24