Trade and Hard Times

Editorial
The New York Times
Published: May 25, 2009
Foreign trade has been a potent force for good over more than half a century. It propelled Japan’s emergence from the ashes of World War II and helped it become an industrial powerhouse. It is the cornerstone of development strategies from China to Brazil. It is what links countries all over the world in a network of production that underpins global prosperity.
Today, trade is collapsing, one more casualty of the global financial crisis. That is especially bad news for countries that are dependent on trade for economic growth, including many developing nations that had nothing to do with the financial mess.
Exports from the United States declined 30 percent and imports 34 percent in the first quarter of the year from the previous three months. Imports into countries that use the euro from outside the area were down 21 percent compared with the first quarter of last year. At this rate, the World Trade Organization’s dire projection in March that global trade would decline 9 percent this year will soon start to look outright boastful.
The drop in trade is spreading economic weakness across the world, as one country’s drop in imports translates into a fall in exports, and production, in another.
Japan, whose economy depends heavily on sales to the United States, saw exports plunge 45.5 percent in March compared with March of 2008. In the first quarter, its economy contracted 15.2 percent at an annual rate, the worst performance since 1955. Exports from China and Brazil both fell 20 percent in the first quarter, compared with the year before. Mexico — linked tightly to the United States market through Nafta — saw exports collapse almost 29 percent while the Mexican economy contracted 21.5 percent at an annual rate, more than three times the rate of decline in the United States.
The main forces clobbering trade seem to be the fall in demand and investment that started in the United States and Europe, and the seizing up of trade finance, which funds up to 90 percent of the world’s merchandise trade, worth some $16 trillion.
The impact has been magnified by the far-flung nature of multinational companies’ production networks — where a factory in one country makes parts that are used by a plant in another country. As demand for their products has declined, the pain has moved across countries up the chain of production. The thawing of credit markets has helped resuscitate trade finance some. Governments of the 20 biggest economies agreed to nudge it along, ensuring $250 billion of trade finance would be available over the next two years. They should keep those pledges, and they may have to do more.
Protectionism also remains a serious danger. With voters insisting that politicians protect their own, many countries have already imposed new restrictions on imports. So far they have been relatively modest. But as unemployment continues to rise, the temptation — and the pressure — will grow. Earlier this year, the Global Monitoring Report by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund noted that “a pattern is beginning to emerge of increases in import licensing, import tariffs and surcharges, and trade remedies to support industries facing difficulties early on in the crisis.”
Of particular concern are attempts by governments — including in the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Switzerland — to ensure that banks bailed out by taxpayers favor domestic borrowers. While the Obama administration has not imposed similar requirements, there is pressure from Congress and the public to make American banks that receive TARP money lend primarily, if not exclusively, to American borrowers. That would be a mistake. One of the sure ways to prolong the global recession is to create even more barriers to global trade.