UPDATE 2-IMF: global rebalancing hard at current forex rates

Thu Oct 1, 2009 7:14am EDT
(Adds Reuters Television interview, bylines)
By Nick Edwards and Daren Butler
ISTANBUL, Oct 1(Reuters) -It is hard to see how global economic rebalancing can happen at current exchange rates, IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard said on Thursday.
He said the strength of world recovery would depend on rebalancing global growth, with a sustained rebound requiring an increase in private consumption and investment.
"If you think about global rebalancing you realise it is going to have to come from a number of measures and from a number of adjustments. It is very hard to see how this could happen at the current exchange rates," Blanchard told a news conference.
"In general it is very hard to see how global rebalancing doesn't come with an appreciation of Asian currencies," he said after the release of the IMF's World Economic Outlook report.
Exchange rate imbalances between countries are increasingly being viewed as one of the key issues affecting the global economy.
A major factor is the strength of the Chinese currency.
A leaders' summit of Group of 20 nations last week agreed to adopt a framework for rebalancing the world economy, which will mean convincing big exporters like China to increase domestic consumption and for the United States to save more.
NOT JUST CHINA
But rebalancing global foreign exchange rates was not just be about adjusting the level of the Chinese yuan, Blanchard said.
"I've focused on China because it is an obvious important component of the solution, but this is not a Chinese problem, it's a world problem," Blanchard said in an interview with Reuters Television.
He declined to give recommendations of specific levels for either the Chinese yuan, or other currencies.
"It's very hard to give you a number. It depends on a number of factors, what the other countries do," said Blanchard, who is one of the officials at the International Monetary Fund tasked by G20 to examine global imbalances and make recommendations to resolve them.
A report on these recommendations is due twice a year.
"We'll give you tentative answers next time we meet, but at this stage I'm not going to give you a number," Blanchard said, speaking on the sidelines of the multilateral lender's annual meetings.
BRAZIL'S EXPERIENCE
The IMF's economics chief said Brazil's recent experience of allowing an appreciation of the real BRL= in tandem with capital inflows was a model that could work in Asia.
But he said some central bank intervention might also be part of the solution.
"It may be that (capital inflows) does some of the work, it may be that more is needed and it may be that in some countries intervention may be needed to prevent too much of an appreciation. We'll just have to work it out and see how it happens," he said.
But while currency strength was key for many Asian economies, Blanchard said appreciation posed a hazard for the region's biggest economy -- Japan.
"Japan has its specific problems and it is not clear that it can adjust, that it can basically go back to health with a very strong yen," he said.
The yen has rallied steadily in recent weeks, pushing it below 90 to the U.S. dollar and forcing a series of statements about currency strength from newly-appointed finance minister, Hirohisa Fujii, that have sparked sharp reactions from foreign exchange traders.
"I would not advocate either a weak yen or a strong yen, I'm saying that the case of Japan is different from the case of other Asian economies," Blanchard said. (editing by Ron Askew)